The New England Patriots are in a tricky spot. They’ve worked hard this offseason to improve the overall team, but it’s fair to wonder if it’s enough to compete in what’s looking like an increasingly difficult AFC East and conference as a whole.

The Buffalo Bills are Super Bowl contenders once more. The Miami Dolphins improved under head coach Mike McDaniel and reloaded the offseason. The New York Jets appear likely to eventually add quarterback Aaron Rodgers in a trade. And the New England Patriots, who finished third in the AFC East in 2022, hired Bill O’Brien and Adrian Klemm to improve their offensive coaching, replaced wide receivers Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor with JuJu Smith-Schuster, tight end Jonnu Smith with Mike Gesicki, running back Damien Harris with James Robinson, offensive tackle Isaiah Wynn with Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson and punter Jake Bailey with Corliss Waitman. They also added linebacker/special-teamer Chris Board and retained their entire defense other than retired safety Devin McCourty.

So, they probably got better, especially on the coaching side. But at least on paper, the Patriots don’t appear to have gone from an 8-9 team in 2022 to a Super Bowl contender in 2023. And it would take a few massive moves to get them there.

Or one.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson, who announced Monday that he requested a trade from the Baltimore Ravens on March 2, wants to play for the Patriots, rapper Meek Mill texted owner Robert Kraft. That’s what Kraft said on Monday moments after giving quarterback Mac Jones a vote of confidence. Kraft said it was Bill Belichick’s decision whether or not to trade for Jackson. It would take two first-round picks.

What an M. Night Shyamalan-style twist to end Kraft’s media availability Monday.

So, let’s unpack this. Jackson might want to play anywhere other than Baltimore right now. But he at least wants to play for New England enough to supposedly tell Meek Mill. The Patriots could use an upgrade at quarterback, and Jackson would certainly qualify. Jones was good in 2021. He was worse in 2022. He’ll probably be better in 2023, but that’s no guarantee, and Belichick wouldn't even go so far as to say he'd start over Bailey Zappe this season. Jackson is the most dynamic quarterback in the NFL, and he would instantly make the Patriots’ offense one of the most exciting in the NFL. Even at Jackson’s worst passing days in 2021, he was a much, much, much more mobile version of Jones.

I reached out to a source about Jackson last week to see if some of the buzz that New England was a “wild card” to trade for the QB was real. That person didn’t believe in it because he was doubtful the Patriots could make the money work. It’s a fair point.

It would be tough if Jackson is truly seeking a top-of-market full-guaranteed contract. But it doesn’t seem impossible. New England only has $11.6 million in salary cap space for the 2023 season. But they have over $130 million for 2024 and nearly double that in 2025 and beyond. What’s a better use of salary cap space in 2024, Lamar Jackson or another 2021-style free agency spending spree? Jackson has the potential to be much more valuable.

The Patriots could free up another $5 million by restructuring Matthew Judon’s contract and another $6 million by restructuring Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise and David Andrews. That could allow New England to sign Jackson to an offer sheet with a sizable signing bonus, a low 2023 salary and significantly higher cap hits in 2024 and beyond. And then the Ravens would have to decline to match it, and New England would send over two first-round picks to Baltimore for Jackson. If the Patriots made the offer to Jackson before the draft, it would be the 14th overall pick in 2023 and their 2024 pick. If it's made after the 2023 draft, it would be 2024 and 2025 first-rounders.

It’s a risk, no doubt. Jackson has missed five games in each of his last two seasons. There’s no real track record for a quarterback to last who has carried the ball as many times as Jackson because no one has.

The Ravens quarterback has 727 carries for 4,437 yards in his first five seasons. Cam Newton has the second-most carries in his first five seasons with 599. Josh Allen is third at 546. Only five quarterbacks have more regular season rushing attempts than Jackson in their entire careers: Newton, Russell Wilson, Michael Vick, Randall Cunningham and John Elway. The careers of Newton and Vick ended early, Cunningham was never the bastion of health, Wilson was a shell of himself in 2022, and it took Elway 16 seasons to have 47 more carries than Jackson.

But on a shorter-term contract — maybe three or four years — Jackson is worth the risk if head coach Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft want to win now. And they should. And they should want to improve with as little moves as possible. Because while the team has a decent roster, it’s not exactly flush with foundational players. Jackson would have a better cast of playmakers at a suitable offensive line, and he’s won with worse in Baltimore.

There’s a conservative angle that trading for Jackson would be a bad idea. There’s major risk, major money and major draft capital to give up. But none of that money or draft capital equals the upside that Jackson would bring to New England. And if the goal is to win as many games as possible in 2023, then Jackson bring that to the table.

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