The 49ers' biggest disappointment at midseason
Week 9 is over and done with. Now it's time for us to look back at the first half of the San Francisco 49ers’ season. All this week we're going to be doing a series of midseason articles. We'll be talking about both the good and the bad of this year so far. Here's what […]
Week 9 is over and done with. Now it's time for us to look back at the first half of the San Francisco 49ers’ season. All this week we're going to be doing a series of midseason articles. We'll be talking about both the good and the bad of this year so far. Here's what we've done so far:
- 49ers' rookie report card
- 49ers' midseason grades
- 49ers' best and worst free agent signings at midseason
- 49ers' biggest surprise at midseason
After going positive with a look at a surprisingly impressive contributor, it's now time to look at the other end of the spectrum with an assessment of the biggest disappointment of the campaign.
A few weeks ago, it might have been difficult to find many disappointing aspects of the 49ers' 2023 season. Now there are several to choose from.
The offensive line has taken a downturn, in large part due to an injury to Trent Williams that has badly affected the run game. The defensive line isn't getting home on the pressures it is creating and Isaiah Oliver has struggled significantly at slot corner of late. On top of that, third-round rookie kicker Jake Moody has been anything but a sure thing.
Yet the offense is the best in the NFL by DVOA and, despite his key misses, Moody has demonstrated why the 49ers drafted him with successful field goals from 55 and 57 yards out.
Most of the problems concern a defense that has dropped from being the best in the NFL last season to 15th by DVOA through nine weeks of the campaign.
The 49ers' biggest disappointment at midseason
Steve Wilks
While the line's inability to convert pressures and Oliver's porous performances in coverage have contributed to the defensive drop-off, the blame can primarily be laid at the door of coordinator Steve Wilks
It was anticipated that Wilks would maintain largely the same defensive approach that proved hugely successful under former coordinator DeMeco Ryans in recent years, but with a tweaks from a coach with a tendency to blitz more than his predecessor.
The tweaks, save for the snaps where the 49ers have played with five down defensive linemen, have not been there. The 49ers are not blitzing more than they did last year, with their blitz rate of 20.1 percent the third-lowest in the NFL, and the plays where the Niners do send extra rushers are clearly having little impact for a team that only has 18 sacks on the year. The less said about Wilks' costly decision send an all-out blitz at the end of the first half in the narrow Week 7 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the better.
Predictable coverage
On top of that, the 49ers' coverages haven't offered much in the way of diversity. Per Arjun Menon, the Niners have one of the most predictable coverage schemes in the league and that is reflected in the way opposing quarterbacks, namely Kirk Cousins and Joe Burrow, have picked a talented 49er secondary apart in recent weeks.
During his tenure, Ryans stuck to the coverage principles Wilks has largely maintained, with the 49ers playing predominantly zone coverage. However, Ryans had disguises in his arsenal and he had changeups in terms of pressures that regularly proved effective.
This year the disguise isn't there and the changeups aren't working, the deficiencies in that regard magnified by the 49ers' struggles in protecting its secondary through successful pressures from the front.
Run defense woes
Perhaps more worryingly, the Niners rank 26th in Expected Points Added per play against the rush.
For a team that has long since prided itself on success stopping the run, that is an alarmingly low position to be in and is the consequence of opponents often finding it too easy to get around the edge of the 49er defense on the ground.
It isn't all on Wilks, and the players in the locker room will tell you that the execution must be better. That is accurate, especially pertaining to the surprisingly sloppy tackling in recent weeks.
But Wilks was expected to arrive and maintain the high standard the 49ers have set on defense given his impressive resume. That has not happened.
The hope will be that with another top-tier pass rusher now on the roster following the addition of Chase Young, a turnaround is on the horizon. If it does not materialize, it will be tough to see the Wilks experiment lasting more than one year.
Which broadcast crew is calling San Francisco 49ers-Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10?
It hasn’t drawn a No. 1 team.
