Oddsmakers had the Buffalo Bills marked as 5.5-point road favorites over the New England Patriots. An unsurprising number considering the Bills have been considered one of the best teams in the NFL all season long.

However, that number has quickly dropped to 3.5. The reason why? Perhaps sharps are higher on Mac Jones and co. after the Patriots offense showed some signs of life on Thanksgiving. Or maybe it’s all about Von Miller’s absence which will have a domino effect on the Bills defense.

The exact reason why we can’t know. But I’d be willing to bet it’s more about one mismatch that could be a difference-maker on Thursday night.

Matthew Judon versus David Quessenberry.

The Bills lost their starting left tackle Dion Dawkins to an ankle injury in the first half against the Detroit Lions, which means it’s time for Quessenberry to step again. He’s been the go-to guy on both tackle spots for the Bills this season.

Although he’s a backup, Quessenberry is a solid player who shouldn’t represent a massive dropoff at the position for Buffalo. When asked to block the blindside for the Tennessee Titans in 2020, he did a decent job.

But it’s not easy to feel confident about a backup going up against one of the best pass rushers in the game. The Bills likely have Matthew Judon as priority #1 when they’re on offense. Judon leads the NFL with 13 sacks to his name and has been able to line up on both sides of the defensive line.

I expect Bill Belichick to move Judon around a lot to exploit both Quessenberry and right tackle Spencer Brown who has allowed 16 pressures in the last three games per Pro Football Focus.

There are a lot of concerns surrounding the Bills right now but if they’re to avoid a Week 13 upset in Foxborough, it will be all about stopping the game-wrecking force that is Matthew Judon.

Featured image via David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

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