The last time these two teams faced each other, the Arizona Cardinals beat the Dallas Cowboys by 28 points at AT&T Stadium. It wasn’t pretty and although Cowboys Nation got through it thinking it was inevitable without Dak Prescott, most players on this team likely didn’t forget.

Will they get a shot at revenge? Or will the Cardinals bounce back as they aim to retake the NFC West lead?

The odds

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Cowboys -300 / Cardinals +235
  • Total: 52

Public betting: Slight edge for Cowboys

Per Action Network, the Dallas Cowboys are fielding 55% of the bets. Even as 6.5 point favorites, it’s surprising that the percentage isn’t higher. The Arizona Cardinals are in a 3-game losing streak while the Cowboys exploded on national TV last weekend.

I was expecting the public to be heavier on the Cowboys. But I guess it’s difficult to forget the Cardinals were atop the NFC for an extended period of time.

Trends

  • Cowboys are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last four.
  • Cardinals are 18-7-2 ATS (66%) in their last 27 games as an underdog.
  • Over is 8-2 in Cowboys’ last 10 home games.
  • Under is 12-4 in Cardinals’ last 16 road games.

The pick: Dallas Cowboys get it done

It feels like a weekly tradition by now. But even though I hate betting into trends, I think there’s value in any number up to seven. The Arizona Cardinals are not a bad football team. Although they’ve lost three straight, I would expect a closer betting spread if they weren’t so banged up.

Left Tackle DJ Humphries was placed on the COVID-19 list as this team continues to miss DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver. They’re also missing a ton of players at cornerback which will be evident as they face one of the best wide receiver units in the league.

Here’s the thing: The Cardinals have been a top 5 defense by many metrics this season. Since Week 8 though, their defense ranks 22nd in Dropback EPA/play and 11th vs the run. The Cowboys are a similar story on offense, ranking as one of the best units in the league overall but below average in recent weeks.

But I have more confidence on the offense that’s healthy and confident after a near-perfect performance last weekend than on a defense that’s still banged up and looking for answers.

Plus, the Cowboys are getting healthier and healthier as Tyron Smith is expected to return this week.

I fully expect the Dallas Cowboys to win the adjustments battle on this one as they face a Kliff Kingsbury’s offense that hasn’t changed much even after losing Hopkins. Kingsbury’s late-season struggles have been a constant since his time at Texas Tech and at some point, we have to question if his scheme gets figured out.

I’m laying the points.

The bet: Cowboys -6.5 (-110)

Season bets: 9-6

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports