Waiting all day for the Sunday Night! You gotta love an NFC East showdown on Sunday Night (unless you’re a neutral NFL fan and are wondering why there’s a 6-8 team playing on primetime in Week 16). The Dallas Cowboys will face the Washington Football Team for the second time in three weeks.

Here’s what we’re betting.

The odds

  • Spread:  Dallas Cowboys -9 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Washington Football Team +310 / Dallas Cowboys -410
  • Total: 46.5

Public betting: Cowboys getting usual support

There are no surprises in the public betting numbers as the Cowboys are getting 56% of the bets, per Action Network. Interestingly, though, the betting spread opened at -10, moved to -10.5 and is now sitting at -9 on game day.

Trends

  • The Cowboys are 11-3 against the spread (ATS) this season.
  • Cowboys are 20-8 ATS in last 28 against the NFC East
  • Washington is 4-1-1 ATS in last 6 games.
  • Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last 8 games.

The pick: Cowboys show value in betting spread

As I’ve stated frequently in this series, I’m not a fan of betting into trends. The fact that the Dallas Cowboys are 11-3 ATS gives me pause rather than confidence. However, betting markets likely haven’t “adjusted” thanks to the fact that the Cowboys offense has yet to wake up.

But we simply can’t overlook how well the defense is playing. In their last game against Washington, the Cowboys’ defensive front dominated the trenches and consistently got to Taylor Heinicke. Don’t expect that to change with Pro Bowler OG Brandon Scherff in the COVID-19 list.

There’s one thing that the Football Team did well in Week 14 when they hosted the Dallas Cowboys at FedEx Field. They ran the ball efficiently. Now, Antonio Gibson is a game-time decision as he hasn’t practiced all week after a Tuesday game.

On the other side of the ball, Dak Prescott & Co. will try to bounce back against a banged-up secondary that will be missing Landon Collins and William Jackson. Although recent results have not proven it to be true, the Cowboys should have a strong advantage in the passing game with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and CeeDee Lamb.

I expect this one to get ugly in the second half. We’re laying the points and backing the second seed in the NFC. 

The bet: Dallas Cowboys -9 (-110)

Season bets: 8-6

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports