The Dallas Cowboys are four-point favorites versus the undefeated Carolina Panthers, the highest point spread they’ve had in the season. The Panthers’ schedule has certainly been one of the reasons they’re 3-0, but they might be more legit than given credit for.
Defensive Coordinator Phil Snow has shown some interesting looks on his defensive fronts that Dak Prescott & Co. will have to figure out in order to get the win.
Will they continue the trend and cover the spread for the fourth consecutive week? Or will the Carolina Panthers keep it close in Arlington on Sunday?
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -200 / Carolina Panthers +170
- Total: 51.5
Public betting: Money HEAVY on the Cowboys!
This is an interesting spot for the 2-1 Cowboys. Usually, they seem to be overvalued by the betting markets because of their popularity. Heading into this game, though, it feels like the 4-point spread doesn’t fully do them justice. At least, the percentage of money on this game believes so.
According to Action Network, 67% of the bets are on the Cowboys. However, that number goes up to 78% when looking at the amount of money bet on both sides.
- Panthers are 6-0 against the spread as road underdogs
- Panthers are 8-0 against the spread in their last eight road games
- Both teams are 3-0 against the spread this season
- Under is 6-0 in Panthers’ last six games overall
- Over is 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four home games
The pick: Cowboys cover the fourth consecutive spread
A lot has been said about the Carolina Panthers’ defense. It ranks first in the league in sacks and pressure rate thanks to a blitz-happy defense (third-most aggressive in the NFL). Keep in mind, the quarterbacks they’ve faced so far are all well below Dak Prescott.
Dak’s quick to throw the ball and the offense is clicking in all cylinders. Even after facing the Bucs, Joey Bosa, and a deep Eagles defensive line, the Cowboys rank 8th in the league in pressure rate allowed.
I don’t see the Panthers’ banged-up secondary surviving the Cowboys’ passing game. And despite Darnold’s strong start to the season, keeping up with Dallas without Christian McCaffrey will be difficult. I think the spread should be closer to 6 points, so I see value in laying the points.
The bet: Dallas Cowboys -4 (-110)
Season bets: 2-1
Odds via DraftKings
Featured image via Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports