My, oh my, is this a football game. Two of the best offenses in the NFL squaring off in a late November game. Both the Dallas Cowboys and the Kansas City Chiefs are aiming to make a statement on what will surely be one of the most-watched games of the 2021 regular season.

Back in the preseason, the projected line for this Week 11 affair had the Cowboys as 7.5 point underdogs. But the Cowboys’ success combined with some Chiefs’ struggles has made Dallas only a 3-point underdog.

The odds: Dallas Cowboys as small underdogs!

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-115)
  • Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys +115 / Kansas City Chiefs -135
  • Total: 56

Public betting: Even money between two popular teams

52% of the bets are on the Dallas Cowboys, per Action Network. With such a low number for the Chiefs, I’m a bit surprised there aren’t more bets on the home team for this one. Perhaps a disappointing Chiefs’ 3-7 record against the spread is the reason why that isn’t the case.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are still 8-1 ATS. There has been some line movement, though. The opening line had the Chiefs at -1.5 and has since moved to a field goal in some sportsbooks.

Trends

  • Dallas Cowboys are 8-1 ATS this season
  • KC Chiefs are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games as a favorite
  • Chiefs are 1-10 ATS in their last 10 home games
  • Under is 4-1 in Chiefs’ last five games

The pick: Trusting the Dallas Cowboys a bit more

Hey, this is a tough game to pick. We started the season 5-1 here on Betting the Cowboys and have since gone through a bit of a slump. I think both offenses find success on this one with both Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes getting enough time in the pocket.

Although the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense has improved, I believe the Cowboys still hold a big advantage defensively. Mahomes & Co. put over 40 points on the board vs the Las Vegas Raiders last week, but the Raiders played them “the wrong way.”

I expect Dan Quinn to head into this game with a similar game-plan to the one that has helped limit the Chiefs’ explosive passing plays.

Also, I believe the Dallas Cowboys have the best offense in the NFL today. Kellen Moore is showing the world new stuff every week and with Tyron Smith potentially rejoining the lineup, I believe Prescott gets it done on the road even without Amari Cooper.

More than a fade on the Chiefs, this is me trusting the Dallas Cowboys to be a legit Super Bowl contender and a potential favorite in the NFC.

The bet: Dallas Cowboys +3 (-115)

Season bets: 5-4

Odds via DraftKings