The Dallas Cowboys are aiming to quickly turn the page after a frustrating loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which they were held to only nine points. To do so, they must beat another AFC West team in a short week.

They take on the Las Vegas Raiders, who have suffered a few issues of their own as they’ve lost three straight with poor play at quarterback. Let’s dive in!

The odds

  • Spread: Dallas Cowboys -7.5 (+100)
  • Moneyline: Las Vegas Raiders +250 / Dallas Cowboys -320
  • Total: 51.5

Public betting: Sharps against Dallas Cowboys!

A Thanksgiving Cowboys game? You just know the public loves Dallas as a home favorite. Per Action Network, the Cowboys are getting 61% of the bets. However, the money percentage is LOADED towards the Raiders.

The Raiders are fielding 71% of the money with only 39% of the bets. Sharp action apparently likes the road underdog on this one.

Trends

  • Raiders are 4-1 in their last five games as road underdogs
  • Raiders are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
  • Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games
  • Under is 4-0 in last four Cowboys games overall

The pick: Cowboys win a low-scoring game

I don’t want anything to do with the spread. Although I’m intrigued by the sharp action mentioned above, I can fully see how the Dallas Cowboys get away from a Raiders team that looks completely lost.

Instead, we’ll turn toward the total to find some sort of value. It’s a short week game and the Cowboys are playing without Amari Cooper while CeeDee Lamb remains questionable with a concussion. Even if #88 plays, I’d expect the Cowboys to feature the running game on this one.

The Raiders’ offense is featuring short throws and they rank 16th in the NFL in offensive pace. With Micah Parsons likely rushing Derek Carr, I expect the Cowboys to win in the trenches while on defense and 51.5 is a high number. 51 is a key number for totals as it’s one of the most frequent numbers in the NFL.

I’ll take the under on a game I expect the Dallas Cowboys to win.

The bet: Total 51.5 UNDER (-110)

Season bets: 5-4

Odds via DraftKings

Featured image via Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports