Not only is this a rivalry game for the Dallas Cowboys but it’s a perfect opportunity to earn some payback against the San Francisco 49ers team that eliminated them from last year’s playoffs.
But now, both teams are very, very different. What’s the best bet to make in this scenario? Back the Dak Prescott-led offense? Or the Brock Purdy quad? Over or under?
Let’s dive in.
We closed the regular season 13-4 (!!!) betting Cowboys’ games in this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys. After a good start on the Wild Card, we aim to keep this streak going!
Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That’s a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys +4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys +165 / San Francisco 49ers -195
- Total: 46.5
The public isn’t on the Cowboys
Per Action Network, 47% of the bets are on the Cowboys.
Although San Francisco dominated the Seattle Seahawks in the second half of their Wild Card game, the Cowboys also are coming off a dominant performance. The public is backing the home team as expected on this one.
- Over is 4-0 in the 49ers’ last four games overall.
- Under is 4-1 in the Cowboys’ last five road games.
- The Cowboys are 12-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 18 road games.
The pick: Dan Quinn wins the chess match
This feels like a Dan Quinn kind of game for me. While Brock Purdy has been impressive as Mr. Irrelevant, it’s clear he’s a rookie that has worked in the most favorable of situations. He has yet to play a legit top defense in the NFL and has yet to play from a significant deficit.
When pressured out of the pocket, the 49ers rookie is prone to forcing plays and throwing turnover-worthy plays. With Quinn’s exotic looks and increased safety rotation, I’m expecting the defensive coordinator to win the chess match against offensive genius Kyle Shanahan.
The Cowboys defense can take the ball away (#1 in takeaways this season) and also significantly improved against the run compared to last year.
This season, they’re Top 5 in rush defense DVOA, EPA/play, and success rate. That isn’t a coincidence over a full season.
I’m betting on the Cowboys defense being too much for the rookie quarterback even though the 49ers offense looks unstoppable. The turnover battle wins games as close as this one and I like Dallas’ chances of winning it.
The bet: COWBOYS +4
Season bets: 13-4
Playoff bets: 1-0
Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%)
Odds via Covers
Featured image via Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports