The Dallas Cowboys will play the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau for a showdown that always strikes some fear in the hearts of Cowboys fans. America’s Team enters this game as a road favorite, which is a testament to how each team’s season is going.
This season, we’re 7-1 on this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys, which is also a segment on my nightly show A to Z Sports Dallas Primetime which you can check out here.
Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That’s a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -4 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -200 / Green Bay Packers +170
- Total: 44
Public betting heavy in Dallas
The Cowboys are fielding 62% of the bets, per Action Network. However, the majority of the money is backing the Packers. That would explain how volatile this betting spread has been.
At one point in the week, the Cowboys were favorites by five points on this one. However, the gameday spread looks closer to the lookahead line last week as Dallas sits as four-point favorites.
- The Cowboys are 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 7 road games.
- The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Under is 6-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 9 games overall.
The pick: Cowboys to score just enough points
While the weather could play a factor on this one, Kellen Moore’s offense should be able to exploit the Packers’ biggest weakness. Their run defense ranks 31st in the NFL in efficiency as measured by Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
Ezekiel Elliott or not, expect Dallas to run the football comfortably throughout the game. The Packers are limping into this one, too. Last Sunday, they lost starters Eric Stokes (CB) and Rashan Gary (EDGE) for the rest of the season.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys offense is showing glimpses of what it can be as they put on a clinic against the Bears in Week 9. In the run game, the Cowboys are using more motion and heavier personnel groupings to unleash a rushing offense that’s averaging 5.4 yards per attempt over the last three games (4th-most in the NFL).
In the passing game, Dalton Schultz could go off against a bottom-12 defense versus tight ends especially after healing up in the bye week.
Wanting to stay away from the spread out of fear of Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur fixing the offense with schematic tweaks, we’ll target the Cowboys’ team total on this one.
The bet: COWBOYS TEAM TOTAL OVER 23.5
Season bets: 7-1
Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%)
Odds via DraftKings
Featured image via Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports