The Dallas Cowboys will play the Minnesota Vikings as they play on the road for the second consecutive week. The Vikings are 8-1 and are fresh off of a win against the Buffalo Bills yet are entering this game as underdogs.
What’s the best bet to make on what should be the game of the week? Let’s find out.
This season, we’re 8-1 on this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys, which is also a segment on my nightly show A to Z Sports Dallas Primetime which you can check out here.
Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That’s a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Dallas Cowboys -125 / Minnesota Vikings +105
- Total: 48.5
Public betting is torn between NFC contenders
The Cowboys are fielding 53% of the bets, per Action Network. That is particularly surprising considering the situational spots for each team. One would’ve assumed that losing to the Green Bay Packers hurt the perception of the Cowboys while beating the Bills could’ve boosted how people look at the 8-1 Vikings.
The betting spread has bounced back and forth between -1 and -2 all week.
- The Cowboys are 10-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 road games.
- The Vikings are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
- Over is 7-1 in the Vikings’ last 8 home games.
The pick: Back the Cowboys as the better team
It’s difficult to ignore the win-loss record of the Vikings. But the Cowboys appear to be the better team in most categories while Minnesota has been average in many ways. Consider how DVOA ranks both NFL teams for a moment, which measures team efficiency.
Cowboys: 4th overall, 12th offense, 2nd defense
Vikings: 17th overall, 17th offense, 19th defense
The Cowboys have clearly struggled against the run recently, but the Vikings still rank below them in rush defense in multiple efficiency metrics including DVOA and success rate. The key for Dan Quinn’s unit is figuring out a way to stop the run without having to sacrifice pass coverage, as they specifically struggle when not loading the box.
While it’s a solid unit, the Cowboys’ defensive line could have a better game against the Vikings’ front five as it’s among the units that allow the highest pressure rate and are not Top 5 in run blocking like the Bears and Packers.
It won’t be an easy game for the Cowboys. But we’ll keep it simple and back the best team, not the winningest team.
The bet: COWBOYS -1.5
Season bets: 8-1
Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%)
Odds via DraftKings
Featured image via Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports