The Dallas Cowboys will try to beat past ghosts to be able to win on Thanksgiving, something they haven’t accomplished since 2018. Off of a 40-3 win against the Minnesota Vikings only five days ago, it feels like a classic letdown spot.
But this team might just be different. Like, really different. Will they prove it on Turkey Day? And if so, what’s the bet to make today?
This season, we’re 9-1 on this weekly series of Betting the Cowboys, which is also a segment on my nightly show A to Z Sports Dallas Primetime which you can check out here.
Last year, we had a positive record of 9-7 on this weekly series. That’s a 56.3% hit rate, over the goal of hitting 52.4% which would be our breakeven rate on -110 odds.
- Spread: Dallas Cowboys -10 (-110)
- Moneyline: New York Giants +370 / Dallas Cowboys -460
- Total: 45.5
The public is fading Dallas
The Giants are getting a surprising 71% of the bets, per Action Network. That’s particularly interesting considering the betting spread was pushed from 8 points at the beginning of the week to 10.
Are the sharps on the Cowboys while the public fades them due to past history on Thanksgiving?
- The Cowboys are 1-10 against the spread on Thanksgiving in their last 11.
- Daniel Jones is 7-0 against the spread on short rest since 2020.
- Under is 7-2-1 in the Cowboys’ last 10 games overall.
The pick: Cowboys to score big, thankfully
I’ll intentionally stay away from the betting spread as 10 is a high number yet I don’t trust the Giants either with how banged up they are heading into this game. They’re currently among the most injured teams in the NFL and it starts in the secondary.
The Cowboys will be facing a Giants defense that will be without starting cornerbacks Adoree Jackson and Fabian Moreau. That’s a bad recipe for a team that heavily relies on man coverage. CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup could be in for huge days.
And if Dallas wants to stick to the run, they’ll be facing the 28th rush defense per DVOA. It’s a very good matchup for Mike McCarthy’s squad.
I expect the Cowboys to come out swinging knowing they have this game in the back if they force a banged-up Giants’ OL to pass-protect Daniel Jones right off the bat. This offensive line will be missing three starting linemen which also opens up the door for some turnovers by the Gianta.
Give us the Cowboys scoring 28 or more on a short week.
The bet: COWBOYS TEAM TOTAL OVER 27.5
Season bets: 9-1
Last season bets: 9-7 (56.25%)
Odds via DraftKings
Featured image via Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports