The biggest storyline for the Tennessee Titans this off-season has been the A.J. Brown/Treylon Burks maneuver. It is for good reason. Brown is one of the best young receivers in the NFL, and the Titans have to find ways to replace his production. That being said, asking a rookie to do that is asking for the moon, basically. Treylon Burks has an avenue to do it, but that would also mean winning rookie of the year. That’s pretty difficult for a rookie WR.

What would Burks’ numbers have to look like to win the award?

Well, the first important concept is how many wide receivers have won the award since 2003. It has only been four players. Anquan Boldin, Percy Harvin, Odell Beckham Jr., and Ja’Marr Chase are the quartet of winners.

  • Boldin (2003)- 101 receptions, 1,377 yards, 8 touchdowns
  • Harvin (2009) – 60 receptions, 790 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns, 1,156 return yards, 2 return touchdowns
  • Beckham Jr. (2014) – 91 receptions, 1,305 yards, 12 touchdowns
  • Chase (2021) – 81 receptions, 1,455 yards, 13 touchdowns

The average of those numbers is 83 receptions, 1,231 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Those stats will be tough for Burks, to attain but it is not impossible. He and Robert Woods are easily the top two talents on the WR depth chart. If he and Ryan Tannehill formulate a great relationship, he could get the requisite targets to attain those type of numbers.

What are the odds he wins Offensive Rookie of the Year?

Burks currently has the third-highest odds to win the award right now. He is only behind Steelers QB Kenny Pickett and Falcons WR Drake London. Burks’ odds currently sit at +770, according to BetMGM. Kenny Pickett is currently in a QB battle with Mitch Trubisky. Pickett may not start until halfway through the season. He may not start at all for Pittsburgh this year.

Burks and London are in similar situations. London has Kyle Pitts taking targets from him statistically. Burks has Woods alongside him, and the offense will always run through running back Derrick Henry.ย The biggest difference is where the teams are expected to sit among their competition. The Titans are expected to be competitors for a playoff spot in the AFC, and the Falcons are in a rebuild. They could be down early in games much more often than Derrick Henry and the Titans. That would give London more opportunities to pad his stats throughout the season.

It also helps him that no rookie RB has much of a chance at winning the award this season.

Regardless, there is a clear precedent to Burks’ opportunity to win Offensive Rookie of the Year for the Titans. He has about as good of a chance this season as any other skill position player in the NFL.

Featured Image via USA TODAY-Sports