The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the NFL’s biggest offseason winners. By trading for A.J. Brown, the Eagles are giving Jalen Hurts a top 10 wide receiver in hopes to increase productivity in the passing game. Most talking heads are betting on Philly’s success in 2022, but one sportsbook is coming in low on Brown’s receiving yards.
BetMGM recently released regular season player props on many of the NFL’s top players. The sportsbook listed Brown’s 2022 receiving yards total at 999.5 yards, which seems conservative on the surface.
There are concerns of a statistical drop-off in Brown’s production after joining the most run-heavy offense in football in 2021. After playing three seasons in Tennessee, a team that primarily relied on force-feeding Derrick Henry, I don’t find those worries to be valid.
Brown will be competing for targets with rising star WR Devonta Smith and TE Dallas Goedert. And while his target share might see a decrease from his time with the Titans, Brown has always made the most of his opportunities.
Eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark in each of his first two seasons, Brown fell just short in an injury-shortened 2022 season. He still managed to catch 63 passes for 869 yards and five touchdowns, but his yards per catch took a dip.
Brown finished second in the NFL in yards per reception in his rookie year, averaging a staggering 20.2 YPR. His 15.4 YPR ranked 14th in 2020, but dropped to 13.8 yards per grab last season.
This could be due to him battling through injuries, or simply because there was no real WR2 in Tennessee last season. Hell, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine finished second on the Titans in all major receiving categories.
My favorite AJ Brown play from the 2020 season:— Titans Tape (@TitansTape) March 13, 2021
– 3rd & 10, down by five with 2 minutes left in the game
– Takes a slant and breaks through four tackles for a TD
– Makes a big time play for the team with the game on the line pic.twitter.com/V3UGSPI70C
If it weren’t for Brown missing essentially five games due to injury, he would have soared past 1,000 yards for the third straight season. I believe the sportsbook is factoring in his injury history along with narratives that Hurts will hold him back in Philadelphia.
I’m not buying it.
Brown likely won’t even need all 17 games to hit 1,000 yards in 2022. He is averaging almost 70 yards per game in his career, meaning that he’ll need to play in just 15 games to hit this mark if he can maintain his average.
I believe Brown will finish closer to 1,250 yards, making this a sweat-free prop bet. Those don’t grow on trees, people. The Eagles didn’t trade for Brown to continue running the ball 40 times per game. Take the over and start counting your money in December.
Featured image via Christopher Hanewinckel – USA TODAY Sports