Bucs have a sneaky advantage heading into the 2025 NFL Draft that could help them bring in another elite class
Jason Licht has never been afraid of making draft trades during his time as the general manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially in the first round.Of his four first-round trades, Licht moved back three times and moved up once. The lone ascension was the decision to trade up from No. 14 to No. 13 […]
Jason Licht has never been afraid of making draft trades during his time as the general manager of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, especially in the first round.
Of his four first-round trades, Licht moved back three times and moved up once. The lone ascension was the decision to trade up from No. 14 to No. 13 in order to grab Tristan Wirfs in the 2020 NFL Draft and we all know how that turned out. The three times he moved back, he nabbed Vita Vea, Logan Hall, and Vernon Hargreaves. Vea has turned into one of the best players on the team and Hall is coming off a career year. The Hargreaves selection fell flat and it's the only pick of this bunch that completely bottomed out.
In other words: Licht has done a damn good job when trading in Round 1.
So that begs the question of will he do it again this year?
The answer? Most likely a "no". It's not anything through his own lack of desire either – he simply may not be able to find a dance partner because of their own desire to stay put or move back, even.
And that's because the consensus view is once you get to around the early 20s, the talent gap begins to shrink all the way into the fourth round. Meaning, the guy you take at 80 could have almost as much value as the guy you get at 35. Our own internal mock draft projections at A to Z Sports vibes with this, as well.
"It just kind of depends on how things fall," Licht told reporters when asked if he's thinking about trading up more this year. "You can't walk into it and say, 'I am definitely looking to trade back,' because you don't know what's going to fall. I do think this year is going to be – I could be wrong – [but] you're going to see maybe a little less people wanting to move up and offering enough to make it worth your while, just because I think the draft is pretty leveled out at a certain point.
"So, you might be able to get the same [level of] player in the second round [that] you can in the fourth round, at certain positions. So, I think you'll maybe see a little bit less of that."
Jason Licht and Co. have been elite drafting outside Round 1 and it gives the Bucs an advantage heading into this year's draft
I'd be shocked if the Bucs pull off a trade-up at this point and it's mostly because they don't have the capital to burn through unless they dig into next year and that's just something Licht doesn't do.
What he does do, however, is draft well in Rounds 2-4 range and that trend can really come in handy when factoring in this year's aforementioned talent gap.
"It might have something to do with it, but I think it's just the way this draft is," said Licht. "You know, we've had some good production. My staff and the coaches have done a great job. The last three years combinedI would say those drafts were elite when you add them up together. So we will try to keep doing it.
"[It] doesn't always work out that way, but keep doing it. I think this particular draft just seems to be a little bit more level, which I'm excited about."
Below is the list of players Licht has drafted in Rounds 2-4 since he became the Bucs general manager in 2014. Players with an asterisk next to their name represent "successful" picks based on impact, longevity with the team, and production. Certain freak circumstances, like Kendell Beckwith's car accident, won't prevent them from being labeled as a "success":
- TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins
- RB Charles Sims
- T Donovan Smith*
- G Ali Marpet*
- LB Kwon Alexander*
- OLB Noah Spence
- K Roberto Aguayo
- CB Ryan Smith
- S Justin Evans
- WR Chris Godwin*
- LB Kendell Beckwith*
- RB Ronald Jones II*
- CB Carlton Davis*
- CB M.J. Stewart
- CB Alex Cappa*
- S Jordan Whitehead*
- CB Sean Murphy-Bunting*
- CB Jamel Dean*
- S Mike Edwards*
- OLB Anthony Nelson*
- S Antoine Winfield Jr.*
- RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn
- QB Kyle Trask
- C Robert Hainsey*
- WR Jaelon Darden
- DL Logan Hall
- RT Luke Goedeke*
- RB Rachaad White*
- TE Cade Otton*
- P Jake Camarda
- G Cody Mauch*
- OLB Yaya Diaby*
- OLB Chris Braswell
- DB Tykee Smith*
- WR Jalen McMillan*
- RB Bucky Irving*
23 of those 36 picks can be deemed a success, which is a 64% hit rate.
That's pretty damn remarkable, at the end of the day. Especially when looking at the success rate since 2017, which represents an outstanding 71% hit rate.
So, it's easy to see why Licht's track record, along with the layout of this year's draft can set the Bucs up for yet another elite haul in 2025. And if there is any general manager/front office out there that can make it happen – it's Licht and Co.
