The Tennessee Vols are pretty much locked into a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff, but they won't officially know their opponent until Sunday afternoon when the final rankings are revealed. 

Tennessee is currently projected as the No. 9 seed, which means they would face the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus in the first round if there are no changes to the rankings on Sunday. 

Because teams that aren't playing won't jump other teams that aren't playing during conference championship weekend (per committee chairman Warde Manuel), the Vols need some help to host a playoff game in Neyland Stadium. 

The best argument for the Vols hosting a playoff game is if Penn State loses by double digits in the Big 10 Championship game against the Oregon Ducks. In fact, it will be borderline corrupt if the Nittany Lions lose that game and don't fall below Tennessee.

"If Penn State loses, it would likely drop behind Ohio State because of the head-to-head result but likely stay ahead of Tennessee," wrote ESPN's Heather Dinich this week. "If the Nittany Lions lose by a lopsided score, they could sink below the Vols." 

Penn State is currently 11-1 and ranked No. 3 in the playoff rankings. 

Indiana, which like Penn State is in the Big 10, is also 11-1, yet the Hoosiers are No. 9 in the playoff rankings. 

Tennessee is 10-2 and ranked No. 7 in the playoff rankings. 

There's a valid argument that Penn State should be ranked similarly to Indiana. Which is why it seems beyond obvious that the Nittany Lions should fall below Tennessee if they lose to Oregon by double digits in the Big 10 Championship game. 

Let's look at the resumés of Tennessee, Penn State and Indiana. 

(Note: All rankings cited are current CFP rankings. Additionally, we are only counting opponents' wins from teams that Penn State, Indiana, and Tennessee beat.)

Penn State's best win: 21-7 at home against No. 21 Illinois 

Penn State's opponents' best wins: Michigan (twice), Iowa, LSU, No. 21 Illinois, USC

Indiana's best win: 20-15 at home against Michigan

Indiana's opponents' best wins: No. 6 Ohio State, Iowa (twice), Michigan, No. 23 Colorado, USC (twice)

Tennessee's best win: 24-17 at home against No. 11 Alabama

Tennessee's opponents' best wins: No. 11 Alabama (twice), No. 13 Ole Miss (twice), No. 5 Georgia, No. 14 South Carolina, No. 19 Missouri, LSU

Again, it's quite obvious that Tennessee was playing better opponents based on the fact that their opponents beat much higher quality teams than Penn State and Indiana. 

(Just so we don't gloss over this, yes the Vols lost on the road at night against Arkansas. That's something that neither Penn State or Indiana have on their resumé. The only argument I can make in Tennessee's favor is that if Penn State and Indiana played against Arkansas in that environment, I think it's safe to say that the games would be competitive. After all, Penn State needed overtime to beat 6-6 USC on the road. It's not a stretch to say that Penn State's game against USC and Tennessee's game against Arkansas were both essentially decided on the final play…sometimes it just doesn't go your way.)

The only thing propping up Penn State over Indiana is a win against Illinois. Is that win against Illinois (a team with zero wins against ranked opponents) that valuable? 

Maybe so in the eyes of the committee, but it shouldn't be (Illinois' best win is against either Michigan or Rutgers, two teams with identical 7-5 records).

(Not that I put much stock into ESPN's Football Power Index, but the Vols are currently ranked two spots above Penn State and three spots above Indiana in it.)

If Penn State loses by more than 10 or 15 points to Oregon, it would be criminal to keep them above Tennessee in the rankings — especially when a very similar Indiana team is already below the Vols. 

Will the committee get it right? Who knows. They haven't been very consistent throughout this process so it's hard to predict. 

But if they do the job that they were charged to do, they'll place Tennessee above Penn State (if Penn State falls in the Big 10 Championship by double digits) and award the Vols a home playoff game. 

Josh Heupel comments on possibility of Tennessee Vols hosting a College Football Playoff game at Neyland Stadium

The Vols are hoping some things break their way