Cowboys: One key stat that could point toward major changes on offense
The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to make a tough decision early in the season. Since they're dealing with important injuries at wide receiver, they'll have to play the game of risk management. So far, I'd say they're making quite the risky bet at this position group. I'm all for sacrificing experience for young players […]
The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to make a tough decision early in the season. Since they're dealing with important injuries at wide receiver, they'll have to play the game of risk management.
So far, I'd say they're making quite the risky bet at this position group.
I'm all for sacrificing experience for young players with upside but the Cowboys are set to enter the season with only one of their active receivers having at least one career touchdown. That means a lot of talent projection, something inherently means uncertainty.
They appear to be unwavering in their stance, too.
While we hoped to learn more about this receiving core during the preseason opener, poor quarterback play stood in the way. Jalen Tolbert, Dennis Houston, among others weren't able to show up mainly because of a lack of quality targets. At the end of the day, wide receiver is an opportunity position and if the throw is not accurate there isn't much to do.
So knowing the Cowboys have decided to take the risky approach when building this position group, the question now becomes a schematic one.
Will the Cowboys mitigate the so-far assumed risk by running more plays out of 12 personnel? (1 running back, two tight ends, two receivers)
Or will Dallas keep working with 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) as its base offense?
You see, 11 personnel has proven to be the league-wide base for a long time now. It's a passing league and to win in such a landscape you likely want three wideouts out there.
In 2021, the Dallas Cowboys ran 11 personnel 65% of snaps. That ranked the 11th-highest in the NFL. We dove into the stat in the Freeman Mazda's Cowboys Stat of the Week of my nightly show A to Z Sports Primetime.
On one hand, the lack of experience of the young ones is concerning. The Cowboys – not known to be the most aggressive of teams – could very well decide to lean on the running game using several two-tight end sets.
When they drafted Jake Ferguson, didn't they preach how he fits what this offense does blocking-wise?
However, I'd argue if the Cowboys are planning on making a drastic schematic shift, we could interpret it as them not being sold on their receivers. If that's the case, not signing a free agent WR would be unacceptable, right?
After all, only seven NFL teams ran 11 personnel in under 50% of their offensive snaps last year.
As of right now, we're aware the Cowboys "like their guys" enough to sit tight in the market. When the season starts – while we await the returns of Michael Gallup and James Washington – will they like them enough to run stay true to Kellen Moore's base offense?
Featured image via Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
