Optimized NFL: What divisions would look like if distance was a priority
You've probably heard it by now, but NFL divisions – regardless of their names – don't make a whole lot of geographical sense. Otherwise, the Dallas Cowboys would probably not play in the NFC East, for example. That's why some have wondered for years, what if the league made distances a priority? Be it for […]
You've probably heard it by now, but NFL divisions – regardless of their names – don't make a whole lot of geographical sense. Otherwise, the Dallas Cowboys would probably not play in the NFC East, for example.
That's why some have wondered for years, what if the league made distances a priority? Be it for player safety or purely financial reasons (always the top priority with the decision-makers), what could the league look like?
Well, thanks to Tom Bliss, a Manager and Football Ops Data Scientist at the NFL, we now have a very good illustration of this.
Bliss took to Twitter to post a map showing "how NFL divisions could be recreated if they were built to minimize the distance between teams." Bliss used linear optimization – a method to maximize or minimize a variable to get the best solution – to get the following results. In this case, it's all about minimizing distance.
Although it's very hard to imagine the league taking such an extreme measure even in the distant future, it's a very fun and intriguing exercise. So let's take it one step further and share some thoughts on each hypothetical division.
‘Optimized’ NFL divisions per Tom Bliss
California + Las Vegas
Teams: SF 49ers, LA Rams, LA Chargers, LV Raiders
With three teams in California, this makes almost too much sense.
From a short-term point of view, we wouldn't lose the duels between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. Although the winner in the relationship-turned-rivalry has mostly been Shanahan, McVay did beat his former teacher for a trip to Super Bowl LVI, which he ended up winning. Kyle is still waiting.
Another thought: Had the Raiders not moved to Las Vegas this would've been almost like an in-state league.
Southwest + Seattle
Teams: SEA Seahawks, ARI Cardinals, DEN Broncos, KC Chiefs
An AFC/NFC West mash-up if you will. In this scenario, the Broncos' rivalry with the Chiefs lives on. We'd also get yearly rematches of Super Bowl XLVIII, which doesn't sound fun for Denver as they'd be constantly reminder of the 43-8 beating they received.
Fans would take an L in this hypothetical scenario, though, as the two yearly meetings between Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert would stop existing. We don't want that.
South
Teams: DAL Cowboys, HOU Texans, NO Saints, ATL Falcons
The battle for Texas would take a whole different meaning right here.
From a 2023 perspective, this would be a massive win for the Cowboys as they wouldn't have to worry about the two other playoff-caliber teams in the NFC East (Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants).
The Saints and the Falcons would keep seeing each other twice a year.
Great Lakes
Teams: MIN Vikings, GB Packers, DET Lions, CLE Browns
This is the biggest reason an optimized NFL would never get my vote: Where are the Bears, man?
Chicago and Green Bay aren't even that far apart but linear optimization shows no mercy. The best path is the best path, period. In this case, the most efficient layout destroys the league's oldest and most iconic rivalry. Cue the hypothetical tears.
Other than that, this is basically the NFC North plus the Browns.
Midwest
Teams: CHI Bears, IND Colts, CIN Bengals, TEN Titans
The Bengals would have to be celebrating if this happened. The Midwest division certainly sounds friendlier than the AFC North. Joe Burrow's Bengals would have the potential to take aim at several league records in this situation.
Maybe in a new division, the Bears would eliminate all the second-guessing and get a new stadium done once and for all.
Northeast
Teams: BUF Bills, PIT Steelers, PHI Eagles, NE Patriots
Oh, boy. This is a scary-looking division right here. These four franchises all have played a huge role in NFL history and it'd be fun to get them all together like this. Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick in the same division? Even if Belichick coaches for just one or two more years, it's almost too perfect. Sign me up.
Josh Allen vs. Jalen Hurts twice a year undoubtedly sounds fun.
Mid-Atlantic North
Teams: NY Jets, NY Giants, BAL Ravens, WAS Commanders
I'm betting the Ravens would be the biggest winners in this scenario with Lamar Jackson leading the way. Getting away from the hard-nosed AFC North is a W and this should
Having the league's two New York teams in the same division could make for some fun scenarios, too.
Florida + Carolina
Teams: CAR Panthers, JAX Jaguars, TB Buccaneers, MIA Dolphins
I don't have much to say about this one other than I can already see the storylines forming in my head:
- Battle of two first-overall picks: Trevor Lawrence and Bryce Young
- Battle Royale for Florida
- Trevor vs. Tua Rivalry
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Featured image via Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
