For years and years, NFL fans and media members have tried to predict the league's Draft with a term you probably get excited for in January but end up being sick of at this time of the year: Mock Drafts. 

For some, it's nothing but a fun exercise to binge on to get to know the top prospects of the year. To others, it's an outright obsession. But Benjamin Robinson, who runs Grinding the Mocks, believes it's a powerful tool that can help predict how the actual NFL Draft will go every single year.

That's what his website tries to achieve by "using mock drafts, the wisdom of the crowds, and data science." By aggregating the public's and draft experts' mocks, his site aims to predict the yearly event.

When watching the Draft from a friend's couch in college, Robinson realized that the analyst's insightful opinions had one problem: Those were based on their own draft boards. And so what was a steal for one of them based on his own draft board could've been a reach for the other guy. There was an inherent bias to the whole thing.

That's when Robinson's background on economics and data science started to work at full speed. While he didn't grow up playing the game, he understood he could bring something to the table based on his own expertise.

"And I was like, you know, I think data might have something to say about where these players are going to go and I think what might be interesting to do is to aggregate some mock drafts," Robinson told A to Z Sports.

"So over that summer after the 2018 draft I kind of put together a little proof of concept based on the 2018 draft and I found some things I thought were really interesting," added Robinson. "Including that there was some decent predictive power in the relationship between the aggregate ranking of what players were going in this mock draft data and what happened in the actual draft."

Since then, Robinson is a data scientist by day and an NFL Draft expert by night. His data and draft tools are featured in FiveThirtyEight, Football Outsiders, and in PFF's mock draft simulator. It's even been used by actual NFL teams. 

"The first time I learned about (an NFL team using my work) was kind of someone like unofficially told me that there was a team that used my data in a really interesting way to help think about player availability and trading down in the draft," said Robinson.

The team then combined their football knowledge with quantitative analysis to get a better idea of whether or not one particular player they were targeting would make it to a lower pick if they did decide to trade down. 

"It was a pretty cool moment to learn that my data had made its way into draft rooms and so it's a real cool way to make an impact, to have something that you're passionate about kind of make its way from your computer into the draft room," said the man who's on a mission to predict the NFL Draft and changing how it's done in the process. "It's kind of like being there."

---

Of course, I'll admit I got selfish during the interview and had to ask Robinson about his expectations for the Dallas Cowboys at 26th overall. One day removed from Draft Day, pretty much every insider has hinted at a tight end for the Cowboys in the first round. Robinson is skeptical about that and has a prediction that no one is talking about. And to be honest, it makes plenty of sense when you hear it.

Grinding the Mocks prediction for the Cowboys' pick at 26th overall

Robinson revealed he will have the Cowboys grabbing a cornerback in his final mock draft: Julius Brents out of Kansas State. Now, keep in mind, it would be a controversial pick. Dane Brugler from The Athletic has him outside of his Top 70 prospects. 

And yet, here's Robinson's reasoning: Over the last three years, the Cowboys have drafted a player from their fifth-most mocked position. While three years worth of Cowboys' first-round picks could be nothing but a coincidence, there's one particular reason to believe Robinson could be on to something.

Such a trend could be interpreted (although this theory I brought up isn't confirmed by data) by the fact that the Cowboys do put an emphasis on drafting the best player available each year. While many could be mocking a tight end to the team based on their thoughts on the team's needs, the Cowboys are likely to take the best player on their board.

Not to mention, Brents would fit the Dan Quinn cornerback type. He tested as one of the biggest cornerbacks in the class and his arm length ranked in the 98th percentile while his height came in in the 96th. 

Cowboys' mindset in the NFL Draft

Last but not least, Robinson had some solid praise for the Cowboys' front office and even suggested that people don't give them enough credit. He explained that the team targets players at premium positions and that they'll go out of their way to grab players who have fallen to their spot like CeeDee Lamb in 2020. 

Just like the Baltimore Ravens get plenty of credit for their steals in the NFL Draft, Robinson argues the Cowboys should get similar praise.

"I think that we can get overconfident in trying to understand the way that the Cowboys see the world," said Robinson. "The media and the mock draft world might think that they understand the Cowboys more than they actually do."

As we make our final preparations for the 2023 NFL Draft, make sure you check out Grinding the Mocks for unique insight based on Robinson's work.