The Cowboys' elite strength that could lead to a Super Bowl run
The Dallas Cowboys have led one of the very best offenses in the NFL since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7. And that's obviously not a coincidence but there's a particular aspect of the offense that demonstrates just how valuable Dak's return has been. Third down. No one has been as efficient as the Cowboys […]
The Dallas Cowboys have led one of the very best offenses in the NFL since Dak Prescott returned in Week 7. And that's obviously not a coincidence but there's a particular aspect of the offense that demonstrates just how valuable Dak's return has been.
Third down. No one has been as efficient as the Cowboys since Prescott's return to the lineup. Let's dive into the numbers.
Prescott has posted a first down on 56-of-109 third-down chances in 2022 – the highest third-down conversion rate among NFL quarterbacks, per the Cowboys' PR team.
That's led to a huge turnaround to the so-called money down that can be appreciated if you split the season before and after Week 7 (Dak's return from injury).
- Weeks 1-6: 56.3% conversion rate, 1st in the NFL.
- Weeks 7-17: 32.1% conversion rate, 29th in the NFL.
But it gets even better. The Cowboys are on a seven-game streak with at least a 50% conversion rate on third down.
Consider the team's EPA/play in these situations. The Cowboys lead the league since Week 7 by a WIDE margin. No team is above 0.3 EPA/play while Dallas is above 0.5. That means every third down they add half a point in expected points.
Note: EPA stands for expected points added. In essence, every snap has "expected points" based on down, distance, etc. How many expected points a team adds per snap is a measure of how valuable and efficient each play is. To record 0.5 EPA/play is crazy.
If you prefer a graphic illustration, look at the graph below which shows the Cowboys in the upper right corner as the best team by far in third down.
EPA/play numbers via RBSDM.com
Double-edged sword
While watching the Cowboys move the chains on third down is super fun, it's also a symptom of a very conservative approach on early downs. While offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is having his best season as coordinator, he can still put his team in some complicated third-and-long situations, which is not a recipe for long-term success.
After all, third-down success has always been difficult to maintain. Once the team's defense started to lose key contributors like Leighton Vander Esch (expected to return in the playoffs) and Anthony Brown (out for the season), I argued for an offensive-first approach.
Aggressiveness in early downs is exactly what I meant. Asking Dak Prescott to bail the offense out every time is a tough ask for even any quarterback in the NFL.
Even Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen would struggle to do so consistently. The key to their success has always been their mentality on first and second downs to avoid third down as much as possible.
For now, Cowboys Nation is left hoping for two things. Either Moore's approach in the postseason is way more aggressive. Or Dak Prescott continues to thrive on third down at an elite level for a few more games all the way into February.
Featured image via Andrew Nelles / Tennessean.com / USA TODAY NETWORK
