Should Patriots draft ‘best player in the entire class’ at No. 14?
The New England Patriots’ needs are obvious less than three weeks out from the 2023 NFL Draft. The team should find a big cornerback who can match up with physical wide receivers, starting left and right tackles of the future and another wide receiver or tight end with the potential to develop into an elite […]
The New England Patriots’ needs are obvious less than three weeks out from the 2023 NFL Draft.
The team should find a big cornerback who can match up with physical wide receivers, starting left and right tackles of the future and another wide receiver or tight end with the potential to develop into an elite playmaker for Mac Jones or whoever is playing quarterback for New England in the future.
There are other ancillary needs at defensive tackle, safety, edge defender, punter and guard, but running back ranks pretty low — last, in fact, in our recent rankings. The Patriots have a three-down back in Rhamondre Stevenson, a veteran with upside in James Robinson, a pass-catching hybrid in Ty Montgomery, two 2022 rookies in Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris, and a practice-squad guy in J.J. Taylor. New England could head into OTAs, minicamp, training camp, preseason and even the season with that group without adding a single other piece. They could even deal with an injury or two behind Stevenson and still be OK. If Stevenson got hurt, it would sting, but a combination of Robinson and Strong could perhaps carry the load.
So, it seems a little odd that there’s been steady buzz about New England potentially taking a running back early in the 2023 NFL Draft. It started at the combine when NFL Media draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah identified Texas running back Bijan Robinson as a first-round fit for New England. Then Jeremiah mocked Robinson to the Patriots. Then The Athletic’s Jeff Howe reported the Patriots have “quietly shown interest in adding another blue-chip back in the draft.”
Others have noted that probably means Robinson or Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs.
Robinson is the No. 3 prospect on Jeremiah’s big board. Here’s what ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote about Robinson in Friday’s pre-draft buzz and rumors column:
“Here's a pretty telling quote from an AFC exec on Texas running back Bijan Robinson: "He might be the best player in the entire class." If Robinson's position had more draft value, he'd be a lock for the top 10. But regardless, he won't slip too far. Robinson rushed for 1,580 yards and 18 touchdowns last season.” — ESPN
Zero running backs were drafted in the first round last year. A running back hasn’t even been drafted in the top 20 since 2018, when Saquon Barkley was taken second overall by the New York Giants. Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris, both 24th overall picks, have been the highest-drafted running backs since Barkley was selected.
The Patriots pick No. 14 overall, so unless they traded down and then took Robinson, they’d be bucking a trend with the pick. The question is whether Robinson is worth taking that high given the relative lack of value in selecting a running back in the first round.
The Twitter account Cash Over Cap put together a chart with the average top 10 salaries by position.
Quarterback unsurprisingly ranks first followed by wide receiver, defensive end, defensive tackle and left tackle. Running back is 12th and only ahead of right guard, center, kicker, punter, fullback and long snapper. The average salary of the top 10 highest-paid running backs is $12.2 million. That’s half as much as the top 10 wide receivers ($25.3 million). Draft picks are paid the same per slot regardless of position. So, if you have the chance to take an elite player on a rookie contract, it simply makes more sense to select a player at the most valuable position. And the Patriots’ biggest needs — wide receiver, offensive tackle and cornerback — all rank higher than running back by at least $5.9 million.
This is admittedly a small-sample study, but there were zero recent Super Bowl winners with anything close to an elite running back, though two teams had recently taken running backs in the first round.
Robinson was PFF’s highest-graded draft-eligible running back last season with a 95.3 overall mark and 96.1 rushing grade. He ranked sixth with 1,575 yards on 257 carries, fifth with 18 touchdowns, third with 1,071 yards after contact, fifth with 4.17 yards after contact per carry, first with 104 missed tackles forced, seventh with 41 10-plus-yard runs, sixth with 314 receiving yards, and he was second in PFF’s elusive rating behind his teammate Roschon Johnson.
At 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, he ran a 4.46-second 40-yard dash with a 37-inch vertical leap and 10-feet, 4-inch broad jump a the combine.
In asking scouts and executives around the NFL if Robinson is really as good as everyone says he is, most said yes.
“There are things to nitpick like patience and trusting his blocks, but he's really talented,” one scout said. “Pretty mature pass game skillset for a college back too.”
Two executives weren't as sold.
“Maybe I’m just hating,” one assisant general manager said. “But I don’t see a generational runner.”
"I'm very skeptical," said another executive.
Still, most were emphatic that Robinson is one of the best players in this draft regardless of position or value.
"His combo of size, patience, vision, contact balance, and speed are rare," another scout said. "Not to mention he's an excellent pass catcher. Looks as natural as a wide receiver running routes out of the backfield and from the slot."
But ultimately, his talent is only one piece of the puzzle.
The evaluation piece is easy," another scout said. "It's just a matter of valuation."
Looking purely at value and if draft grades are similar, New England should take a cornerback, offensive tackle or wide receiver — or even quarterback, defensive end or defensive tackle — over Robinson if they’re still on the board at No. 14 overall. Stevenson is under contract for two more seasons, and barring injury, he and Robinson would share time and lower each others' relative value for at least two years, barring a trade.
But it also kind of depends on the Patriots’ overall goal as they head into the 2023 season. Is it to be as competitive as possible in a difficult AFC and especially AFC East? Or is it eventually to reshape their offense and build around running the football?
The Philadelphia Eagles just made a Super Bowl passing the ball just 49.96 percent of the time. Unlike Patriots QB Mac Jones, they also have a mobile quarterback in Jalen Hurts.
Robinson has some pretty batty film. He very well could become the best running back in the league pretty quickly. The question is how much value that provides to a team compared to a player like Stevenson who was found in the fourth round. Or a player like Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco, a seventh-round pick who helped his team to a Super Bowl win last season. And there’s the question of how long Robinson will last since running back longevity is an issue.
It would certainly be fun to watch Robinson. But most logic points to there simply being more value in taking another position that high in the draft, especially with some pretty obvious needs across the roster.
We'll find out in less than three weeks which path the Patriots take. They've certainly shown interest in wide receivers, cornerbacks and offensive tackles.
Adding the "best player in the entire class" is certainly attractive. But if it was that simple, then Robinson would be picked No. 1 overall.
Featured image via Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports
