It will be tough sledding for the Miami Dolphins to find a taker for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa this offseason. The probability that the Dolphins would absorb a significant portion of his salary to facilitate any hypothetical trade makes it highly unlikely they could facilitate a trade of their maligned quarterback before the summer, when they can split the monstrous dead cap they’d take on to move him between both 2026 and 2027.

But the more information we get across the rest of the league, the less encouraging it is that Miami could get much of anything for Tagovailoa. The market, it appears, could have several quarterbacks who have worn out their welcomes and are owed guaranteed salaries. Arizona’s Kyler Murray is one. But it seems as though we may have another one entering the fray, which further hurts the Dolphins’ hopes and dreams of getting something for their quarterback.

The Geno Smith situation in Las Vegas appears primed to further cut down any trade hopes Miami has for Tua Tagovailoa

“If Smith can’t play Sunday, his tenure with the Raiders most likely is over. The former West Virginia standout was acquired during the offseason from Seattle, where he re-established himself as a starter playing under Carroll from 2020 to 2023…There won’t be much of a trade market for Smith, who is signed through the 2027 season. If the Raiders cut him, they will owe him $18.5 million of his $26.5 million salary for 2026. They would save $8 million in cash and salary cap space.”

— Vincent Bonsignore, Las Vegas Review-Journal

The Raiders are on the cusp of securing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, which would assure them the right to select a quarterback of their choosing. It sets the stage for Geno Smith to be entered into the quarterback market as a bridge option with salary guarantees that could be paid by the Raiders, not a new team signing him.

This is where the salaries complicate the issue for Miami. Smith is owed $18.5 million in 2026 salary fully guaranteed. If the Raiders release him, they’ll still owe him that money next season, and any team could then sign Smith to a minimum-salary contract, allowing Las Vegas to pay the maximum percentage of his compensation under his prior contract.

The Raiders would be reimbursed up to $18.5 million by any team paying Smith compensation, thanks to what is called “offset money.” All NFL teams know this, and teams aren’t really in the business of paying more than they have to.

So, unless you’re going to offer Smith MORE than $18.5 million, his earnings ceiling is capped for 2026, and it simply becomes finding the right fit for minimum salary while letting his old team foot the bill.

The same situation will play out in Arizona with Murray, except his fully guaranteed salary in 2026 reaches $36.8 million. Tagoaviloa’s guarantees total $54 million in 2026.

Which NFL team will wait until after June 1 to acquire its veteran quarterback and then onboard a larger portion of the salary than the minimum salary opportunities that may be out there earlier in the offseason with either Murray or Smith? And send compensation to Miami for his services, to boot?

The supply and demand of these quarterbacks is a problem for the Dolphins — several veterans could shake loose with guaranteed salary owed to them by their former teams. Any of these franchises could cut bait and move on by releasing their quarterback, and it would severely hinder Miami’s chances of trading Tagovailoa.

These passers all have different strengths. Murray is an electric athlete. Smith has the most gifted arm. Tagovailoa is the most precise and accurate. Each also has its own flaws, too. Murray struggled to operate the passing offense in structure. Smith is older and has always been a bit of a gunslinger. And Tagovailoa’s durability issues are well-documented, and he’s the least impactful outside of structure.

Tua’s contract structure might make him the least appealing bridge option this offseason

But if they’re all on the move, they all hurt each other’s chances of being moved via trade because of the promise of an alternative at a dramatically reduced cost. And even if teams were lining up to trade for all three, Tagovailoa’s financial schedule in 2026 makes him the most complicated to acquire and the most complicated to move in the spring, as compared to the summer when the cap flexibility opens up.

The Dolphins must decide how far they want to press this issue. If they make a decision early in March to simply rip the band-aid off, they’ll save themselves $3 million in 2027 — salary that is scheduled to become fully guaranteed in the first week of the league year this spring.

Smith has an additional $8 million in 2026 salary that is guaranteed fully on the third day of the league year in the spring. The Raiders, if they’re done with him, will likely release him before that, as he’ll only get harder to trade. The Cardinals have $19.5 million in 2027 salary that guarantees two days later this March. You want to talk about doubling down on sunk cost…

These guys will be on the move. And that probably means the Dolphins need to be honest with themselves about what kind of market could be waiting for Tagovailoa later this offseason — unless they’re willing to get crazy with the cap charges or the compensation going with Tagovailoa in a trade package that sheds salary.

And being honest, in this case, could mean taking it on the chin and simply moving on for the betterment of everyone involved.

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