NFL analyst points out the biggest reason why Bills won't make it to the Super Bowl
It's been a wild ride for the Buffalo Bills. Throughout the offseason and preseason, not only were they the odds-on favorite to be crowned the champions but they drew comparisons to some of the best teams in NFL history. Albert Breer, for instance, compared them to the '07 New England Patriots and the '13 Seattle […]
It's been a wild ride for the Buffalo Bills. Throughout the offseason and preseason, not only were they the odds-on favorite to be crowned the champions but they drew comparisons to some of the best teams in NFL history.
Albert Breer, for instance, compared them to the '07 New England Patriots and the '13 Seattle Seahawks. And for the most part, they've really looked like the league's deepest and most complete roster.
In fact, after everything they've gone through, including Von Miller's season-ending injury, they currently are the second odds-on favorite to win Super Bowl LVII.
They don't look unbeatable, however. That's fine, of course. This is the NFL we all love to watch. Competitive at every turn, even if the quarterback on the other side is Skylar Thompson, for example.
NFL Network analytics expert Cynthia Frelund put together an article on each team's biggest vulnerability heading into the Divisional Round.
In the article, Frelund essentially outlines each team's weak spot that could cost them a trip to Arizona in February.
For the Bills – who receive the second highest probability of winning the Super Bowl from Frelund – the biggest vulnerability is their tendency to turn the ball over.
Here's her explanation:
"This one isn't a surprise. In the 2022 regular season and playoffs, Josh Allen has recorded 22 giveaways, including 16 interceptions, and the team has 30 total in that span, second-most in the NFL. Here's what is surprising: I did some math on the net impact of a turnover in the playoffs over the past 10 seasons and found that, when games have been within two scores, fumbles have been worth about 3.6 points for the defense, while interceptions have been worth about 1.8 points. That's a difference of almost 2 points! Allen plays well in the clutch, as evidenced by his fourth-quarter passer rating in playoff games (105.0), which is the third-highest among all QBs in the last 30 seasons. But an ill-timed turnover can spell doom in the postseason."
You can read the full article here.
Although it's outlined as the biggest vulnerability, it also serves as a silver lining. You see, turnovers are very unpredictable and they tend to come in bunches.
That means that while Buffalo's offense is risky by nature, it still works and is one of the best in the NFL. They rank second in DVOA, points per drive, and EPA/play!
Turnovers are a real headache for any team in the league. But the Bills offense isn't even close to being broken because of the turnovers. Even counting those, Josh Allen drives a steam train of efficiency.
Featured image via JAMIE GERMANO/ROCHESTER DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE / USA TODAY NETWORK