Bills Playoff Picture: Can they steal the AFC East?
With the season officially halfway done, now it's time for us to look back at the first half of the Buffalo Bills season. We're going to be doing a series of mid-season articles that will talk about both the good and the bad of this year so far. Here's what we have discussed so far: […]
With the season officially halfway done, now it's time for us to look back at the first half of the Buffalo Bills season. We're going to be doing a series of mid-season articles that will talk about both the good and the bad of this year so far. Here's what we have discussed so far:
- Bills' mid-season rookie report cards
- Bills' mid-season MVPs
- Bills' mid-season grades for offense, defense, and special teams
- Bills' biggest disappointments
- Bills' biggest surprises
- Bills' biggest need at midseason
- Bills' best and worst offseason acquisitions
- Bold predictions for the remainder of the Bills' season
Bills' playoff picture if the season ended today…
The Buffalo Bills would not be a division champion if the season were to end right here and right now. In fact, they wouldn't even be in the postseason if it were to start today. With the latest downfall of the offense, people are calling for Ken Dorsey's position to be terminated. Here's what the AFC postseason would look like:
Kansas City Chiefs (7-2) – AFC West leader
Baltimore Ravens (7-2) – AFC North leader
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2) – AFC South leader
Miami Dolphins (6-3) – AFC East leader
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) – Wild Card
Cleveland Browns (5-3) – Wild Card
Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) – Wild Card
In the hunt:
Buffalo Bills (5-4)
Houston Texans (4-4)
Los Angeles Charges (4-4)
New York Jets (4-4)
Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
The above seeding would mean that Buffalo wouldn't even get a crack at the NFL postseason, something that I don't think anyone had on their bingo cards heading into this season. Buffalo was one of the top teams in terms of Super Bowl favorites so their rapid decline has fans worried, and long-time critics of the team cheering.
Will the Buffalo Bills make the playoffs?
Despite their recent challenges, I think that the team will bounce back and sneak into the playoffs. The Buffalo Bills have a 21% chance to make the playoffs as a wildcard team and a 29.5% chance to win the division, per Aaron Schatz's DVOA-based probabilities.
Buffalo had previously won the AFC East in three consecutive seasons and has an opportunity for a fourth if they can just keep up with the Dolphins, who seem to be struggling against winning teams.
The Buffalo Bills, led by Josh Allen, have a tough task ahead of them as they have one of the hardest strengths of schedule remaining in the entire league. With injuries plaguing their defense, and the offense struggling, it couldn't come at the worst of times.
Despite that, we still BILLieve.
Can Buffalo win the AFC East?
As we mentioned before, Buffalo has a chance although it's slimming with each and every loss. Here's the probability of winning the division, per Schatz's playoff chances:
- Bills: 29.5%
- Dolphins: 64.4%
Miami has the upper hand here, as their next five opponents give the Dolphins a great chance to extend their lead. Buffalo will need Miami to lose a handful of these games in order to close the gap in the division race. Here are the Dolphins' next five games:
- vs. Raiders
- @ Jets
- @ Commanders
- vs. Titans
- vs. Jets
If Miami can't beat winning teams, they should fly through these next five games with limited pushback, which makes Buffalo's chances even that much worse. If they can't fix their inefficiencies on offense, these next five weeks could be brutal.
As we mentioned, Buffalo has a tough slate ahead of them. As is the case when you keep winning your division and generally have a tougher schedule compared to other team's in your division. Here are the Bills' next five games:
- vs. Broncos
- vs. Jets
- @ Eagles
- @ Chiefs
- vs. Cowboys
As of right now, the team has some work to do if they want to not only find a way to win their fourth consecutive AFC East crown but also to just get into the playoffs in general.
The sky isn't falling, quite yet, but another loss or two packaged with a win from Miami could have us slamming the panic button.
Bills’ Sean McDermott gives definitive answer on Ken Dorsey’s future
The Buffalo Bills have been struggling on offense. As a result, people are calling for the removal of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Sean McDermott opened up on his future.