SEC Championship scenarios prove that Alabama has a clear path to Atlanta barring shocking result on rivalry weekend

Here are all the avenues that will determine who plays in the SEC championship.

Rob Gregson NFL News Writer
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Nov 22, 2025; Tuscaloosa, Alabama, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) takes the field before a game against the Eastern Illinois Panthers at Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium
David Leong-Imagn Images

Raiders owner and GM Al Davis had a famous message during his time in the NFL: “Just win, baby.” And for the Alabama Crimson Tide, that is the exact message for this week’s Iron Bowl. It’s simple, win, and you’re in the SEC championship.

But what about if the Crimson Tide loses? Then what happens? Here we look at the scenarios that will determine which teams meet in Atlanta.

SEC championship scenarios

Alabama has the simplest path to Atlanta. Win and you’re in; lose, and you’re out. Texas A&M is also a lock if the Aggies can take care of the Texas Longhorns, but they still have a shot should they come up short in the matchup.

And that’s where things get tricky. The Georgia Bulldogs have the third-best odds of making it to Atlanta, as a win or loss against Georgia Tech will have little impact on what happens. The Bulldogs lost to Alabama, but seeing as it was the team’s only loss of the season, Alabama dropping its third of the year would give Georgia the edge.

It’s hard to believe when considering all of the noise surrounding that program, but the Ole Miss Rebels aren’t out of the mix yet either. They have the toughest test by far, as the Rebels need to win and see the Aggies and Crimson Tide falter, but the team looks to be a lock for the CFP either way.

“Yeah, rivalry game. Amazing environment. We’ve played in amazing environments throughout the year on the road at night. I get it,” said Kalen DeBoer earlier this week via the Alabama Crimson Tide YouTube channel when asked about a road Iron Bowl. “We understand it’s going to be a great experience there, and it’ll be one where we’re facing a team that wants to knock us off our goals and our hopes and all that. But you’ve really got to simplify it down. You’ve got to prepare. Prepare for the noise, prepare for the emotions that come, and that’s what our season’s done for us.

We’ve been through a lot of that, and again, there’ll be new challenges that present themselves in the game, and a lot of it will be a new matchup, guys that have different people in front of them, strengths and weaknesses of the opponent, every single week changes. We’re just going to prepare our best, focus on what we do because that’s what we’ve done all season long to go out there and be our best on Saturday.”