Two wide receivers from Alabama and Ohio State on pace for best true freshman seasons of all time
The 2024 college football season is still young, but heading into Week 4 one thing is already abundantly clear. This year's group of true freshman wide receivers are something special. Last week, we took a dive into all the top true freshman breakout candidates, but this week we have to talk about two of them […]
The 2024 college football season is still young, but heading into Week 4 one thing is already abundantly clear. This year's group of true freshman wide receivers are something special. Last week, we took a dive into all the top true freshman breakout candidates, but this week we have to talk about two of them specifically who are currently on record-setting pace.
Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State and Ryan Williams of Alabama have been making some special plays through the first few weeks of this season and find themselves on pace for quite literally the best true freshman seasons of all time. And not just from a raw yardage standpoint, although that's nice. Even by most meaningful metrics that scale to their specific offenses they're looking like truly special players.
If we take a look at how Smith and Williams measure up based on some key metrics that predict both NFL Draft capital and future success they join a cohort that includes players like Julio Jones, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, and more (as you can see in the image below).
This image shows every true freshman wide receiver season since 2005 where the player eclipsed 30% of their team's receiving yards (receiving yard market share). It's sorted by dominator rating. And as you can see, both Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams find themselves at the very top of the list.
If you're unfamiliar with Dominator Rating it's simply an expression of the team's receiving production a wide receiver accounts for by himself. It averages the percentage of receiving yards and touchdowns that the player accounts for within their passing offense and gives us a singular percentage score. Long story short, players who perform well by this measure (among the others listed on the chart) quite often get drafted very early and far more often than their less productive contemporaries.
But what makes each wide receiver so special?
Ryan Williams, Alabama
When Ryan Williams announced that he would be reclassifying from the 2025 recruiting class to 2024 it was a huge deal. While that happens from time to time, it's rare that reclassified players one, maintain their five star status, and two, find immediate success that puts them into "elite" talent conversations from day one.
Williams has been redefining what we thought possible up to this point in the season. He should still be a senior in high school, but is already clearly the best wide receiver on Alabama's team, and perhaps one of the best in the entire SEC.
His ability to create easy separation, and in the highlight touchdown above stack defensive backs on vertical routes making him an easy target downfield, sets him apart from most upperclassmen let alone true freshman wide receivers.
He's leading all true freshman in the history of college football in receiving yard market share, receiving yards per team pass attempt, and touchdowns per team pass attempt already. Just unreal dominance from Ryan Williams at Alabama so far.
Jeremiah Smith, Ohio State
Jeremiah Smith shed his black stripe (a freshman tradition at Ohio State) faster than any player in the history of the program this spring because it was immediately clear that he was potentially the best player on the entire team despite being a freshman. After spending all spring burning his future NFL defensive back teammates the hype train went off the rails and yet he still lived up to his lofty expectations.
Through just two games Smith already has 11 receptions for 211 yards and three scores, looking ready to break any and every wide receiver record ever at Ohio State. And if he continues scoring easily from any spot on the field like on his touchdown in the post below it's very likely Smith solidifies himself as one of the best college wide receivers ever.
Not too many true freshman can just run a simple short hitch route, flip on the jets and burn an entire defense for a touchdown, but Jeremiah Smith is just built different. At 6'3", 215 pounds Smith was logged via GPS tracking this spring running over 23 miles per hour in full pads. You can't teach that kind of speed and size combination.
Smith leads all true freshman wide receivers in the history of college football so far in yards per game, touchdowns per game, receiving touchdown market share, dominator rating, and adjusted yards per team play. It's going to be a fierce battle all season long between Smith and Williams to decide which one of them goes down in college football lore as the greatest true freshman ever. The answer might just have to be both of them in an outrageously productive tie.
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