College Football Playoff updated 12-team projections following final approval of 2024 season format
A new era of college football begins this fall as postseason hope arises for many new programs with the dawn of the 12-team playoff format. The College Football Playoff committee released a statement today announcing that the proposed 5+7 model had officially been approved. The five highest ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids will […]
A new era of college football begins this fall as postseason hope arises for many new programs with the dawn of the 12-team playoff format.
The College Football Playoff committee released a statement today announcing that the proposed 5+7 model had officially been approved. The five highest ranked conference champions and seven at-large bids will qualify for this new iteration of the 12-team playoff model.
Previously, the proposed split had been between six conference champions and six at-large bids, but the dissolution of the Pac-12 as we know it this past year necessitated a change in format.
Before we dive into updated projections of the 12 teams who will likely qualify for the 2024 playoff, here is the playoff selection committee's full explanation for how the inaugural season of the new format will be seeded via Chris Vannini of the Athletic:
With this new format in mind, it's time to share my updated early projections for the 2024 12-team College Football Playoff.
First Round
Four Conference Champions on Bye
- Georgia (13-0 SEC Champion)
- Ohio State (12-1 Big Ten Champion)
- Florida State (12-1 ACC Champion)
- Kansas State (11-2 Big 12 Champion)
First Four Matchups
- #12 Boise State (12-1 MWC Champion) at #5 Oregon
- #11 Utah at #6 Texas
- #10 Clemson at #7 Ole Miss
- #9 Penn State at #8 Notre Dame
#12 Boise State at #5 Oregon
Oregon defeats Boise State easily here.
Boise State will likely enjoy the nice ride to a Mountain West Conference championship thanks to star running back Ashton Jeanty and USC transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson's five star arm talent. However, once they face off against a stacked Oregon roster they likely don't stand a chance.
In this scenario Oregon would have defeated Ohio State in the regular season at home, finishing 12-0 in the regular season, but then lost to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Championship game. Dillon Gabriel could very well break NCAA career records for most quarterback starts, passing touchdowns, and passing yards with a strong showing this season.
#11 Utah at #6 Texas
Texas takes down Utah in a tight game.
In this fairly likely scenario Utah loses to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship after having the better regular season record. Utah and Kansas State have the two highest preseason win totals in the Big 12. Cam Rising battles through what seems to be his 20th collegiate season here, but his veteran savvy and want-to is not enough to beat a Texas team stacked with offensive weapons and a staunch defensive front.
Texas is led by Quinn Ewers and a shiny new set of offensive playmakers in Isaiah Bond, Amari Niblack, and Matthew Golden to create a top five offense for the Longhorns. The emergence of star linebacker Anthony Hill Jr., Alfred Collins, and transfer edge rusher Trey Moore prove to be a formidable force on defense too.
#10 Clemson at #7 Ole Miss
Jaxson Dart and his elite Ole Miss receivers edge out Clemson.
Cade Klubnik proves to be more than just a liability for Clemson as the Tigers fake their way through a less than difficult ACC schedule. However, they then lose a close championship game to Florida State (their second lost to the Seminoles on the year). Barrett Carter and Trenton Simpson become the best playmaking duo of linebackers in the nation, but it's not enough to stop Ole Miss and their top wideouts.
Jaxson Dart takes another step after posting top ten efficiency numbers in 2023 and absolutely slays their SEC schedule with the exception of Georgia. Tre Harris, transfer Juice Wells, and Caden Prieskorn all ball out with well over 800 receiving yards apiece on the season. Princely Umanmielen meets Cade Klubnik in the backfield a handful of times in this first round matchup and the Land Sharks advance.
#9 Penn State at #8 Notre Dame
Penn State finally gets an explosive performance from Drew Allar at just the right time to defeat Notre Dame.
Drew Allar finally takes the next step up from efficient game manager to big-armed playmaker as he connects with transfer wide receiver Julian Fleming all season long. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen remember they're one of the best running back tandems in the nation. Dani Dennis-Sutton proves to be a first round edge rushing talent. That combination overwhelms Notre Dame who will lean too heavily on the legs of quarterback Riley Leonard with not much else going for them offensively against their toughest opponent of the year.
Quarterfinals
#1 Georgia vs #9 Penn State
Georgia cruises past Penn State in this quarterfinal matchup.
Carson Beck doesn't miss a beat as he moves on from Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey. Incoming transfers TE Ben Yurosek, WR London Humphreys, and returning slot receiver Dominic Lovett prove to be great. Florida transfer Trevor Etienne becomes one of the top running backs in the nation. And as always, Georgia's top tier defense is stacked with early NFL Draft picks like safety Malaki Starks, LB Smael Mondon Jr., LB Jalon Walker, and EDGE Mykell Williams. The talent gap and depth proves too much for Penn State.
#2 Ohio State vs #7 Ole Miss
Ohio State's returning hoard of elite talent destroys Ole Miss.
Ohio State returns nearly their entire starting defense, star receiver Emeka Egbuka, stud running back TreVeyon Henderson, and add the experience and mobility of Will Howard at quarterback. Plus they stole away transfer running back Quinshon Judkinds from Ole Miss, who gets to run his old team into the ground here. Ole Miss is talented, but not enough to stick with this stacked Buckeyes team for a full four quarters.
#3 Florida State vs #6 Texas
Texas lays the smack down as DJ Uiagalelei makes a few key mistakes.
Overall, DJ Uiagalelei seems like a great fit to find success at Florida State, but he's been known to crumble and see ghosts in the pocket at critical moments throughout his career. The Seminoles are also replacing key skill talent all over their roster. The Longhorns likely ride their talented backfield of CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue to victory with a few big splash plays from their new receivers.
#4 Kansas State vs #5 Oregon
Oregon slowly takes over the game and wins big late.
Dual threat sophomore phenom quarterback Avery Johnson should have an absolutely bonkers breakout season, which is good enough to win them the Big 12 in spectacular highlight fashion. Johnson's mobility and swag will be fun to watch, but the Ducks are just built different. Dillon Gabriel's experience at quarterback, a top five offensive line in the nation, and an athletic defense prove too much for Kansas State.
Semifinals
#1 Georgia vs #5 Oregon
Georgia wins in a classic slobber knocker.
Georgia's physicality and depth are just enough to bully their way to victory as Carson Beck also uses this as his "prove-it" game to rise into early round NFL Draft consideration for 2025. Oregon tries to control the game on the ground with star running back Jordan James after an early touchdown to transfer wide receiver Evan Stewart, but ultimately it's not enough.
#2 Ohio State vs #6 Texas
Ohio State proves they're no longer soft, pounding Texas up front and scoring at will.
Will Howard's dual threat ability, TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins in the backfield, and Chip Kelly stressing the Texas defense with his play calling just barely gives Ohio State the edge here in a high scoring affair.
Championship
#1 Georgia vs #2 Ohio State
In a rematch of the semifinals from two years ago Georgia faces off with Ohio State. This time it's Georgia that misses the potential game-winning field goal at the last second as Ryan Day is vindicated, winning his first Championship with the Buckeyes.
Hope you enjoyed these 2024 College Football Playoff projections! Be looking for far more detailed college football breakdowns from A to Z Sports as the season approaches.
