Final score predictions for Michigan vs. USC: Will Bryce Underwood continue breakout year or does Lincoln Riley’s offense prevail?
QB Jayden Maiava and WR Makai Lemon could keep this game close with Michigan by themselves for USC
The Michigan Wolverines and USC Trojans enter Week 7 with 4-1 records. Both teams’ only loss came to a top 20 ranked opponent. Both could propel themselves into Big Ten conference contention and rise into College Football Playoff consideration with a victory over the other.
Which team will emerge victorious? I took a dive into all the major matchups and meaningful metrics to figure out if Sherrone Moore’s tough defense can stand the test against Lincoln Riley and his elite offense. The sports books seem to be favoring the Trojans, but let’s find out if that actually makes sense.
Key Facts & Stats for Michigan vs. USC
- USC ranks first among all FBS teams in adjusted EPA per play, overall offensive success rate, yards per drop back, and several other key efficiency metrics.
- Conversely, Michigan’s offense ranks outside the top 30 by all those same measures–by most measures they rank outside the top 40 offenses overall.
- Michigan ranks 17th among FBS teams in yards per drop back allowed on defense, and even higher by most rushing defense metrics.
- Conversely, USC’s defense ranks 97th in yards per drop back and 123rd in rush success allowed.
Michigan’s key strengths over USC
The Michigan Wolverines have been getting much improved production out of their wide receivers and freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood, but that area of their game should hardly be considered a strength just yet. The good news, however, is that the USC Trojans defense is still utterly atrocious. The Trojans rank 97th in yards per drop back, leaving a huge opportunity for Bryce Underwood to post his most efficient passing game yet. Then their run defense ranks 123 in rushing success rate allowed, meaning Justice Haynes might take another huge leap towards the single season rushing record at Michigan.
Michigan’s expected success against the Trojans defense is really more about the weakness of USC than it is a strength of the Wolverines. The true strength for Michigan that may finally lead to someone slowing down the USC Trojans passing attack (that we’ll get to shortly) is along the defensive front and the back end of the secondary for the Wolverines.
First off, the secondary is limiting quarterback efficiency at an extremely impressive rate, ranking 17th in yards per drop back allowed and 11th in explosive pass rate for plays of 30+ yards this season. The secondary might not have elite cornerbacks, but Jyaire Hill, Jayden Sanders and the safeties have limited big plays all year long, especially from slot receivers (where USC thrives).
And second, the defensive front is shutting down the run completely, allowing just 2.4 yards per carry on the season (4th in the FBS). They’re also tied for 19th in sacks generated thanks to the special play of talents like Derrick Moore (four sacks this year himself). If Michigan can limit big plays on the back end and shut down USC’s run game, or at least limit Waymond Jordan who has been averaging over seven yards per touch, the Wolverines could perhaps emerge victorious.
USC Trojans QB Jayden Maiava and WR Makai Lemon could win the day
Where USC clearly has a huge advantage is with their offense. The Trojans rank first among all FBS teams in adjusted EPA per play, overall offensive success rate, yards per drop back, and most every other passing related measure. Why is that? Quarterback Jayden Maiava and wide receiver Makai Lemon.
Lemon continues to cement himself as one of the best wide receivers in all of college football and will likely be an early NFL Draft selection next spring. He ranks first among all power conference wide receivers in yards per game.
Jayden Maiava might not have the physical tools to be an early draft pick, but he currently has more passing yards than any other Big Ten QB, the third highest passer rating in the country, and the absolute highest mark in yards per pass attempt. Yes, Michigan has done a good job limiting big plays so far, but if they falter against any team in that department it’s likely USC.
Final Score Predictions for Michigan vs. USC: Wolverines 37, Trojans 34
This could be the highest scoring point total of any game this year for Michigan. They should be able to put up plenty of points thanks to USC’s weak defense. However, despite the Wolverines not allowing more than 27 points to anyone thus far, they likely give up over 30 this week thanks to the Trojan’s truly elite pass attack and surprisingly potent running game too.
Ultimately Bryce Underwood and company likely put together their strongest offensive performance, and do just enough to contain big plays late in the game to come away with a victory, but it’s a tight race to the end. Michigan wins 37-34.
We’ll be back with more Michigan Wolverines and USC Trojans coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
