Best, worst, and most likely scenarios for Notre Dame QB CJ Carr as he enters his first year as the starter for the Fighting Irish 

What is the most likely scenario for CJ Carr in his first year as the starter for Notre Dame?

Ryan Roberts National College Football Writer
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It was an extensive and heavily debated quarterback battle between redshirt freshman CJ Carr and redshirt sophomore Kenny Minchey, but Carr was able to win out in the end for the Notre Dame starting job. It was a competition with a lot of ups and downs, some intriguing twists, and an ending that took many by surprise. 

Without getting too deep into the weeds of the race for QB1, and the misinformation that was presented following the announcement by some, it was an important one for head coach Marcus Freeman and the Fighting Irish staff. This decision will continue to be dissected, and is one of the most important decisions we have seen during the Freeman tenure so far. This could end up making or breaking championship hopes for the Irish in 2025. 

For those who follow high school recruiting, you know that Carr was rated as a borderline five-star player coming out of Saline (Mich.) High School by multiple platforms not named On3. While expectations were certainly high coming in during the 2024 recruiting class, nobody knows exactly what to expect from the 6-3, 210-pound passer. Without a single collegiate pass attempt on his resume thus far, this is a projection until it isn’t anymore. 

The reality is that there are a ton of possibilities for how Carr looks this season, and a variety of outcomes that could follow. Some would be way more welcomed by Notre Dame fans than others. 

The superstar expectations met 

There are some parts of the fanbase that just assume that Carr is going to be the savior from day one. While there will undoubtedly be great moments mixed in, this is probably the most unlikely possible outcome for the redshirt freshman. The transition just isn’t easy, especially when you have Miami and Texas A&M to kick off the season for your first two games. 

Nobody would question that although Riley Leonard was a really good college football player, the passing last season was far from perfect. Some of that was Leornard’s fault, and some was the result of the surrounding support. Leonard was an extremely difficult player to get on the group for opposing defenders, and he had to be while playing behind an offensive line that had a ton of struggles in pass protection a year ago. 

Is this offensive line going to be considerably better in pass protection? If it isn’t, how will Carr handle it? Getting the football out of his hand would help to counteract pressure, but just like anything, there are going to be imperfect moments. Carr is going to need to have answers for impending pressure. 

Getting the football out quickly to his talented wide receivers would be extremely advantageous for finding those answers. That wide receiver group, in theory at least, should be able to make a lot of plays this season. The Mike Denbrock offense will need that to be the case. They have the upside to take a lot of pressure off of Carr’s back, and help to alleviate concerns up front in pass protection. 

Promising but inconsistent 

Of all the possible outcomes, the “promising but inconsistent” label feels like the most likely for Carr. An extremely gifted thrower of the football, Carr is going to make some big plays for the Fighting Irish this season. He is also, however, going to make some mistakes at times as well. 

I hate to break it to some fans out there, but Carr isn’t perfect, and nobody is. He is going to throw some interceptions, take some bad sacks, put the football on the ground, and have some overall frustrating moments. Carr is a first-year starting quarterback, and that comes with the territory. 

First and foremost, Irish fans need to be okay with that, especially early on in the season. We are not going to see the best version of Carr from the onset more than likely. You chose him to be your quarterback with the long-term outlook considered. 

As Tom Hanks once said in the movie Cast Away, “Tomorrow the sun will rise, and who knows what the tide will bring.” In this case, it will bring better days. Some patience is needed, as well as some unwavering support for Carr through those frustrating early blunders. 

Carr just isn’t ready – Minchey time? 

At the end of the day, Coach Freeman and his staff have shown that they will stand by the major decisions they make. I find it hard to believe that there is going to be this extremely short leash for Carr early in this season. You have to think that this team will let him work through some struggles. 

With those two early games against Miami and Texas A&M, it does make the level of patience aspect of the conversation a little more nuanced. With that front-loaded schedule, would the Notre Dame staff be more likely to go to Minchey if struggles happen for Carr? Especially at a high volume. 

While possible, I don’t buy that the leash will be incredibly short. Coach Freeman and his staff are very smart people. They understand that this is a difficult job that Carr has in front of him, and the issues that young quarterbacks can have. If you wanted more experience, and less volatility, you wouldn’t have let two inexperienced quarterbacks fight it out for the starting spot. 

In a hypothetical world where Notre Dame were to make a switch early in the season, what if Minchey comes in and lights it up? The quarterback battle between Carr and Minchey was close, so what would the perspective be if the latter outplays the other early if he gets a chance? 

That’s where things get very tricky. Most won’t want to hear this, but this is the second most likely outcome outside of Carr being promising but inconsistent.