College Football Playoff Championship Predictions: Ohio State and Notre Dame a lot closer than Vegas believes?
The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff Championship matchup is set. Ryan Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes will face off against Marcus Freeman and his Notre Dame Fighting Irish in what will be a legendary battle between two of the biggest brands in the sport. Which powerhouse college football program will win the national […]
The first ever 12-Team College Football Playoff Championship matchup is set. Ryan Day and the Ohio State Buckeyes will face off against Marcus Freeman and his Notre Dame Fighting Irish in what will be a legendary battle between two of the biggest brands in the sport. Which powerhouse college football program will win the national championship?
One of these two head coaches will win their first national championship. One will fall short. Vegas and all the major sports books have seemingly decided who the champion is going to be, but do they have it wrong? Today we'll take an early dive into the data to help predict whether Ohio State or Notre Dame truly has the edge from data driven perspective.
But before we dive in, here's how the rest of the playoff bracket has gone so far via the post below from the official College Football Playoff account.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame National Championship Game
The Ohio State vs. Notre Dame betting lines opened market-wide around -9.5 in favor of the Buckeyes. However, based on early betting action there are some strange trends emerging.
The Irish are significant underdogs, and the vast majority of the betting public is already rolling with Ohio State minus the points (somewhere around 90% as of this writing). What's odd is that "sharp" money is coming in on the Notre Dame side plus the points. Usually when this happens (as you can see mentioned in the post below), something wonky is brewing. This is not to say that an outright upset is most likely, just that the public (and Vegas) might have things wrong in terms of the wide implied victory margin for Ohio State.
Why might Ohio State be favored by almost 10 points at market open though? And how might that be a bit too strong? Let's dive in.
Ohio State and Notre Dame both have elite defenses. Both teams rank Top 4 among all FBS teams in adjusted EPA per play allowed, EPA per drop back allowed, and pass success rate against defensively. The trenches for both teams are stacked with surprisingly balanced secondaries behind them that quite often contain plays, keeping everything underneath in the passing game.
The obviously wide gap between the two teams emerges when looking at the offenses. Ohio State has a massive edge in run-pass balance, yards per play, and yards per drop back in the passing game. They rank Top 5 in almost every offensive category on the season, especially when adjusting for strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Notre Dame doesn't rank Top 5 in just about anything offensively except for yards per carry and there isn't much predictive signal via that particular statistic.
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The implied point total for Ohio State is 28. Notre Dame, 18.5. How could Notre Dame close that gap in betting market perception, and perhaps reality?
Notre Dame's defense has reached new levels of dominance in the College Football Playoff. The Irish have only allowed one passing touchdown outside of junk time (and that came against Georgia). If they can continue clamping down on defense, they might actually be able to slow down Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate at wide receiver for Ohio State.
Their explosive run issues (Notre Dame ranked outside the Top 100 in explosive runs allowed this season) only surfaced in limited instances against Penn State. They'll need the rush defense to stay strong if Marcus Freeman and company want to have any hope of slowing down the dynamic RB duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins.
Notre Dame will need more than just defense to keep this game close too. Their offense has done just enough to stay on schedule, steadily converting first downs with 20+ in two of three playoff games so far. However, they'll likely need a gargantuan performance from an unexpected star like the kind Jaden Greathouse put on display in the semifinals with seven catches, 105 yards, and a touchdown if they really want to keep this matchup tight. Unfortunately, Riley Leonard just hasn't been a good enough passer to prop up a ton of offensive playmakers with his arm this season.
In the end, after looking at all the advanced predictive metrics, it's clear why Vegas is so bullish on Ohio State. However, anything above a touchdown does not bode well from a modeling or simulation perspective for Ohio State to cover unless the Buckeyes break off a massive explosive touchdown or two (like they did before halftime against Texas). It's no wonder the sharp money is coming in on Notre Dame +9.5. We'll see if the market corrects in the coming days, but Ohio State wins regardless.
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We'll be back with more College Football Playoff coverage here at A to Z Sports here soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
