College Football Playoff Predictions: Semifinals defy foolish narratives and crown most deserving champion
The first and second rounds of the 12-Team College Football Playoff are already behind us. Only four teams remain: Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, and Penn State. Which powerhouse brand of a college football program will win the national championship? Today, we'll dive into the data and predict a winner.The first two rounds have been […]
The first and second rounds of the 12-Team College Football Playoff are already behind us. Only four teams remain: Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, and Penn State. Which powerhouse brand of a college football program will win the national championship? Today, we'll dive into the data and predict a winner.
The first two rounds have been plagued with a handful of ugly blowouts. Hopefully the final three games of the year will break that trend. In case you somehow missed it, here's how the rest of the playoff bracket has gone so far in the post below from the official College Football Playoff account.
Notre Dame and Penn State will face off first on Thursday, January 9th at 7:30pm ET.
Ohio State and Texas play the next day, Friday January, 10th at 7:30pm ET.
How will the semifinals and championship game of the first 12-Team College Football Playoff actually play out? Let's dive into each potential matchup using some key success metrics to help predict how things might go.
Semifinal Predictions
Penn State vs Notre Dame Semifinal
This may be the best game of the entire College Football Playoff. Why? These two teams look nearly identical in a variety of ways. Both teams rank top six in adjusted EPA per play, top ten in yards per play and per game allowed on defense. Their rushing attacks are two of the best in the nation with NFL talents in both backfields. So which team has the edge?
The short answer: Penn State. And it comes on the offensive side of the ball. Surprisingly enough to many college football fans, Penn State has been one of the most efficient offenses in the country all year long. They rank 5th in adjusted EPA/play, 8th in yards per play, and 2nd in overall offensive down to down success rate. Quarterback Drew Allar, tight end Tyler Warren, and the running back tandem of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen all bring with them NFL talents and it's shown in recent weeks.
Quarterback Riley Leonard and dynamic duo of running backs (Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price) have found success against most defenses this season. However, they likely struggle against first round edge defender Abdul Carter and the Top 10 havoc rate that Penn State produces. Nittany Lions and James Franklin defy the negative narratives here and move on to the College Football Playoff Championship.
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Texas vs Ohio State Semifinal
Ryan Day's Ohio State Buckeyes have looked unstoppable for the last two weeks as they ravaged both Oregon (41-21) and Tennessee (42-17) by three or more possessions with ease. Can Steve Sarkisian's Texas Longhorns fair any better? This game should be closer, but that's what many thought about Oregon too.
Both defenses rank Top 3 in yards per play and per game on defense with strong schedule-adjusted numbers across the board. Both teams have absolutely stacked rosters with future NFL talent on offense and defense. The difference in this contest likely comes from the offensive balance and emerging dominance from the Buckeyes on that side of the ball.
Jeremiah Smith has nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns in the last two games by himself. Will Howard is finding Emeka Egbuka when he can't get the automatic touchdown to Smith. The Buckeyes offense is clicking on all cylinders as they're averaging over eight yards per play in the College Football Playoff. TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are playing like the early-round NFL Draft prospects they are.
Texas will need peak Quinn Ewers to play all four quarters without tossing his usual one untimely interception per game. They'll need wildly ferocious pass rush from true freshman phenom Colin Simmons, Barryn Sorrell, and Trey Moore. Jahdae Barron and the dynamic trio of safety and slot defensive backs will have to play out of their minds against the best wide receiver group in the nation. All of that and the Longhorns still might fall short. Buckeyes win a close one as Steve Sarkisian's team gives it everything they've got.
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Championship Predictions
Ohio State vs Penn State Championship
Ryan Day.
James Franklin.
Two coaches hoping to overcome the major negative narratives that have overshadowed their largely impressive and continual successes throughout both of their head coaching tenures. Ryan Day can't beat Michigan and hasn't won a championship yet despite loads of talent. James Franklin can't win the big games against the best teams. One of them achieves ultimate vindication if and when these two teams face off in the College Football Playoff Championship.
The last time these two teams faced off ended in victory for the Buckeyes, 20-13. That final score marked the smallest margin of victory for Ohio State in this rivalry since 2018. However, the final score didn't tell the whole story.
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard threw the worst interception of his entire college career early in the game as Zion Tracy ran it back for a defensive touchdown. Unfortunately for Penn State, that was their only touchdown of the game. The Buckeyes controlled things the rest of the way. Drew Allar nearly led a scoring drive until he threw an interception in the red zone.
Since then both teams have changed. Both seem to be much better versions of themselves. However, The Buckeyes should still ultimately win the day once again.
Ohio State's depth of talent, advantages at most every position–with the exception of their offensive tackles against Penn State's pass rush led by first round talent Abdul Carter–should be enough to give them a slight edge here in this potential College Football Playoff Championship matchup. Ryan Day finally wins his first championship, silencing the critics. James Franklin still can't win the big games against the best teams.
We'll be back with more College Football coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
