CFB insider expects Lane Kiffin to make move Ole Miss fans will hate amid LSU and Florida buzz

Lane Kiffin has a better job at Ole Miss than college football media “experts” believe

Travis May — College Football Managing Editor
Add as preferred source on Google
© Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

It’s that time of year again. “Lane Kiffin is leaving Ole Miss” season is upon us once again, but this time there are a multiple major programs involved that have many in the media believing he’s finally actually going to leave.

First it was the Florida Gators job as it became clear that Billy Napier’s days were numbered. Now it’s the LSU Tigers job since Brian Kelly was unceremoniously fired from his duties as head coach in Baton Rouge this week.

On Tuesday, yet more fuel was added to the fire when ESPN’s Pete Thamel and a handful of college football insiders were discussing Lane Kiffin’s “likely” departure. However, is all the buzz actually based on reality? Or could Lane Kiffin simply be far better off staying at Ole Miss? Rebels fans won’t like the national narratives, but a more likely truth might win the day in the end.

Recent Ole Miss, LSU & Florida performance by program

  • Since 2021, when NIL (Name, Image, Likeness) deals and collectives were first legitimately established, Ole Miss has a win-loss record under Lane Kiffin of 46-14 (77% win rate), with three (likely now four) seasons of 10+ wins, and three (likely now four) AP top 11 finishes
  • In that same five-year span, the LSU Tigers have gone 40-21 (66% win rate) with just two 10-win seasons and exactly zero AP top 11 finishes
  • In that same five-year span, the Florida Gators have gone 28-30 (48% win rate) with just one winning season and zero AP top 25 finishes

Lane Kiffin assumed to be a battle between LSU Tigers and Florida Gators

It seems that most everyone assumes Lane Kiffin is just going to leave Ole Miss after this season for LSU or Florida. That’s what most every article has been about since this past weekend when it comes to the Rebels’ coach. ESPN’s Pete Thamel believes the same based on what he’s hearing:

“Lane Kiffin is the buzz. He’s on the lips of the power brokers at both Florida and LSU. Look, what Ole Miss has helped him build there has been incredible…Right now it’s hard to imagine Lane Kiffin coaching at Ole Miss next year. The opportunity that looms at either LSU or Florida is too big. The variable here that’s going to be fascinating and that’s going to loom over the last two months of this season is how the dynamics would work if Ole Miss indeed does make the playoff…The College Football Playoff does not start until December 19th. It would either be a high-wire act, where whatever [program] wants Lane, and has some kind of agreement with Lane maybe verbally, keeps the job open and waits for it to happen, or they announce it beforehand, which would be awkward too.”

If Ole Miss keeps winning, the situation for both LSU and Florida does get more “awkward” with every passing week. Both the Tigers and Gators jobs could remain open well beyond the end of the college football season if they’re fighting for Lane. One of them could “win” the battle for Kiffin, but leave the job vacant knowing he’s coming after Ole Miss’ season ends. Or, they could – worst case – announce that he’s coming in the middle of the Rebels’ playoff run. All of that sounds terrible, for everyone involved.

Those awkward outcomes might be what some experts believe to be most likely, but the more likely truth is that Lane Kiffin’s simply going to stay with the Ole Miss Rebels if the team heads into the College Football Playoff this year. Why? It’s 2025, not 2005.

Pete Thamel was likely wrong about everything he said except for the fact that, “What Ole Miss has helped [Lane Kiffin] build there has been incredible.” The Ole Miss Rebels are a program that can compete at the highest levels now. Kiffin has outperformed both LSU and Florida easily over the past five years. His win rate (77%) is higher than LSU (66%) or Florida (48%). He’s well on his way to 10-win season number four this year in that five-year span – something LSU and Florida combined have only managed twice since 2021. Ole Miss has finished top 11 in the AP Poll three times already and are likely going to do it again this year. LSU and Florida haven’t done that even once in the last five years.

Why do the “last five years” matter when it comes to the debate surrounding current superiority and status of programs? Everything. The Transfer Portal officially came into play in 2018. NIL came into play in 2021 (five seasons ago). The eligibility rule that allowed transfers to play immediately was in-stated in 2024. Then revenue-sharing was ratified in 2025. The entire landscape has changed. Talent is being redistributed and parity across the sport has never been in a better place. The college football that anyone thought they knew prior to 2021 no longer exists.

The LSU and Florida football programs might have the “want-to” and a slight edge over Ole Miss financially and organizationally right now, but that gap is fading fast. Is that waning gap really worth it to Kiffin? We’ll find out soon enough. However, it’s quite clear that LSU and Florida fans, leadership, and boosters are living in the past, perhaps demanding greater results than what are easily accomplished in today’s college football. Kiffin could stay and become a legend at Ole Miss. Or he could jump ship too early like he foolishly did early in his career and perhaps find himself on the hot seat within the next three years again by virtually no fault of his own.

It’s his choice. Ole Miss fans just have to hope that Kiffin makes the right one.

We’ll be back with more Ole Miss Rebels coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

Related Articles