We are just a few hours until Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin makes a decision on his coaching future, supposedly. After a hectic last couple of weeks, which included both LSU and Florida courting him, Kiffin is now down to two options – staying with the Rebels or opting for Baton Rouge and the Tigers. It has been a hiring period of speculation, a ton of drama, and a whole lot of guessing. 

With how Kiffin operates, this decision really could go either way, and anyone who claims that this was a done deal well before today is a liar. At different points in this process, prominent insiders and analysts have felt good about each of the options being the decision in the end. There has been a lot of back channeling for information, and a guessing game has ensued. 

In order to make the best educated guess as possible, I have also back channeled as much as possible, and talked to as many people who may have any sort of pulse on the situation. My final prediction doesn’t just include where Kiffin will end up, but the chaos that could come afterwards. This decision can, and will have a ripple effect on the rest of college football. 

Here’s how I see the Kiffin situation playing out. These are predictions, but a lot of work has gone into creating them. 

Should he stay or should he go? 

It wasn’t overly surprising to see Florida fade down the stretch. They had some early momentum but the lack of alignment up top with AD Scott Stricklin is pretty unsettling for any coaching candidate. The top two options for Kiffin have been Ole Miss and LSU for a while now. It has been about as close to a split decision as you can get. 

While I wouldn’t be shocked if Kiffin chose LSU, I think he ultimately decides to stick with Ole Miss, for now anyway. There is a comfort with the Rebels that is important for the Kiffin side. With the increased resources that have also been provided to the program over the years, it is a much more attractive job than it once was. 

If I’m correct, then both LSU and Florida will quickly need to pivot to new head coaching candidates. Luckily for the Gators, they already got a head start on that aforementioned pivot this past week. 

Florida finds their man 

There have already been rumors surfacing about the Gators job this week, and the two names that have been mentioned most are Jon Sumrall (Tulane) and Jeff Fisch (Washington), who is a Florida alumni. While Fisch is a very intriguing candidate, I’d expect Sumrall to be the top option for the Gators. I’d also expect this process to move very quickly, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Florida gets it done as soon as possible. 

The timing is key for Florida. If LSU is left at the altar by Kiffin, I’d expect Sumrall to be a coach they also have a lot of interest in. This head start could be huge for the Gators, and getting it done could eliminate the chances that LSU makes a late pivot and push for him. 

If Sumrall does become the next head coach for Florida, the optics are going to look bad and the Gator fanbase isn’t going to be happy. After the Billy Napier failure, the program going back to the Group of Five ranks is going to be controversial. There are many who believe that Sumrall is the right man for the job, but the fans will probably have to see progress before buying in, which is understandable. 

You are going to hear Lincoln Riley’s name at some points with Florida interest, but I wouldn’t take that fit seriously. His name surfacing is interesting, however. 

Next coaching hires 

The bigger question will be where LSU goes from here if Kiffin does opt to stay. If Florida does get Sumrall off the board quickly, then they have some difficult decisions to make. The big name I would expect to be talked about a lot is Arizona State head coach Kenny Dillingham. 

It’s uncertain how much interest Dillingham would have, especially since he is a Sun Devil alum, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t at least explore the option. Outside of Dillingham, I’m not overly sure where LSU would turn to. There are going to be other names brought up, but he’d be my best guess as a next step option to know. 

Auburn is the other team who would be affected most if Sumrall does end up with Florida. They have been the program linked to him most, and there is little question that he has been their top option. Good luck figuring out the next option for Auburn because I certainly have no idea. 

Aside from those SEC jobs available, Penn State would be the biggest job still available. Despite the names that are out there, including James Madison head coach Bob Chesney, I still think the Nittany Lions are exploring some flashier names. It’s uncertain if that search will be successful, but the recent Chesney rumors feel like more strengthening the floor of the search. 

Not necessarily for the Penn State job, or any job that is currently open, but there are a couple of bigger names who have been floated out there. Both feel unrealistic to be on the move to some, but you never know in the wonderful world of modern college football. 

Along with Riley, the other interesting name that has been rumored out there is Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer. Why would DeBoer leave the Crimson Tide? I hear you, but I do think both coaches are worth keeping an eye on in terms of future postseason coaching movement. There’s no guarantee that either will hit the market, but there is some real smoke there depending how the season finishes. 

Lane Kiffin rumors are just beginning 

If Kiffin does opt to stay with Ole Miss, it would be a massive victory for athletic director Keith Carter and the Rebels program. While it’s great for the short term, this isn’t going to be the last head coaching job that Kiffin is associated with, and I’m not sure it’ll even be the last of this offseason. Ole Miss is going to have to be ready for all future battles to keep Kiffin, so buckle up, everyone. 

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Joe DeLeone