Jaxson Dart leads group of QBs in 2025 NFL Draft who may already face an uphill climb towards success amid NFL Combine action
The 2025 NFL Draft class doesn't look quite as deep at the quarterback position compared to most recent classes. At least there likely won't be as many first round quarterbacks as we're used to seeing.Last year, six quarterbacks came off the board in round one. 2023 there were three. Since 2017 (the Mahomes year), the […]
The 2025 NFL Draft class doesn't look quite as deep at the quarterback position compared to most recent classes. At least there likely won't be as many first round quarterbacks as we're used to seeing.
Last year, six quarterbacks came off the board in round one. 2023 there were three. Since 2017 (the Mahomes year), the first round of the NFL Draft has averaged around four quarterbacks selected. This year it looks like there are only two "safe" projections for first round draft capital in Cam Ward (Miami) and Shedeur Sanders (Colorado).
So, where does that leave the next tier of quarterbacks when it comes to predicting future NFL success? Strong college quarterbacks like Jaxson Dart of Ole Miss, Will Howard of Ohio State, Jalen Milroe of Alabama, and a few more likely hear their name come off the 2025 NFL Draft board somewhere beyond the first round, but before the late rounds. What should NFL fans expect from the quarterbacks who don't go somewhere in the first round?
There have been plenty of studies over the years analyzing this very question, but Mel Kiper and Field Yates of ESPN simplified this answer just ahead of the NFL Combine in their First Draft podcast. They took a deep dive into QB hit rates, dating all the way back to 1970, and the results were not that promising when it came to passers selected outside of the first round.
There are all sorts of ways to quantify a "hit" at quarterback, but Mel Kiper's "playoff caliber" criteria was simple, smooth, and makes a lot of sense. Kiper wanted to see how many starting quarterbacks simply made it to the playoffs from 1970 to 2024. If a QB took their team to the playoffs that counted as a "hit".
That criteria may seem like too low a bar, but when compared to other studies done on the topic the results were surprisingly quite similar. And just like studies done before he split the first round into multiple segments (1st Overall, Top 5, and Pick 6+), then compared draft eras too (1970-1993, 1994-2024) since the 7-round model is rather new.
You can see in the graphic below just how quickly the hit rates drop from above 50% to nearly nothing for quarterback prospects selected in the later rounds.
Over the years first overall selections at quarterback have been essentially a coin flip with their hit rates coming in just above 50% in both the modern era and the early Super Bowl years. Top 5 picks have hit nearly a whopping 70% of the time. And mid to late first round picks have hit somewhere around 40%. All in all, first round picks have been a pretty great bet for future NFL success.
However, once things get even into the second round the hit rate drops to around 30%. Who might the second round picks be in the 2025 NFL Draft class? According to Mel Kiper, there might be a handful of names who could go inside the second round:
"What are we talking about with Will Howard? Kyle McCord? Jalen Milroe? Tyler Shough? Dillon Gabriel? Jaxson Dart? Jaxson Dart's now maybe first round. Maybe. But let's get him in the second round…A lot of these guys I just mentioned are going to be second round picks (or maybe just a little later)." – Mel Kiper
The hit rate in the modern era has been a little bit better for second round quarterbacks, but still not great. However, the second round pick list does include guys like Super Bowl champion Jalen Hurts, Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Geno Smith, Andy Dalton, and more. There's certainly a path to success via the second round. But after that? Things get ugly.
The hit rate for third round quarterbacks and beyond were a bit higher prior to 1994, but in the modern era things are atrocious for mid to late round passers. Third round, 11%. 4th round, less than 10%. Fifth round, 0%. Not one. 6th round, inexplicably 20%. 7th round, less than 10% yet again. Not great.
This is not to say that quarterbacks can't hit after the second round, but in the modern era the leash is extremely short for those passers in terms of real consideration and opportunity to become a true starter in the NFL. All of the hit rates and games played data agrees.
So yes, Jaxson Dart and all of his fellow quarterbacks competing for the QB3 spot in the 2025 NFL Draft better hope they sneak into the first round if they want anything close to a 50% shot at becoming a "playoff caliber" quarterback. And if they want anything above a 10% shot then second round capital needs to be the absolute minimum target for NFL Draft capital. Otherwise they might face quite the uphill climb to "make it" in the NFL.
Jaxson Dart certainly looks like he has the best shot among tier two quarterback prospects this year as momentum has been rising for him up NFL mock draft boards and discussions around the league this spring. He's currently projected to be an early to mid second round pick (and up to a first round selection) based on latest mock draft trends and A to Z Sports sources. Milroe might join Dart in that range too, but not many others are expected to be selected quite that early.
Dart has the best meaningful metrics profile to pair with his NFL Draft expectation too. He finished the 2024 season ranked first in total yards per game, yards per play, and adjusted yards per pass attempt. He also finished top five in EPA per play, QBR, and passer rating. If Dart impresses at the NFL Combine he might just finally rise into the consensus first round discussion. If not, fans might want to keep their expectations in check when projecting future NFL success for Dart, let alone any other quarterback besides Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft class.
Jaxson Dart’s true 2025 NFL Draft stock is in question as expert makes a strong statement on his rise ahead of the NFL Combine
Is it already too late for Jaxson Dart to rise into the first round?
We'll be back with more Ole Miss Rebels coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
If you want to check out why Jaxson Dart may actually be good enough to be a first round 2025 NFL Draft selection just watch some of his 2024 highlights in the video below!
