Lane Kiffin's surprising stat should give Ole Miss fans hope that College Football Playoff is still in play
Ole Miss is just two freak nearly-impossible-to-convert plays away from being undefeated this season. Yes, they lost to Kentucky and LSU in dramatic fashion, but their season is far from over. And if anyone was losing hope heading into the bye week over the weekend, one surprising stat that Lane Kiffin just shared could give […]
Ole Miss is just two freak nearly-impossible-to-convert plays away from being undefeated this season. Yes, they lost to Kentucky and LSU in dramatic fashion, but their season is far from over. And if anyone was losing hope heading into the bye week over the weekend, one surprising stat that Lane Kiffin just shared could give Ole Miss Rebels' fans new perspective.
When Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin met with the media this week he was asked about the impact of the bye week on his players, and whether it was good to get a break coming off the tough overtime loss to Brian Kelly's LSU Tigers. Lane Kiffin had this to say:
"I think it was good. From the mental part I think that [we] just kind of had a lot going on with the two losses that we so easily could have won and had control of in both games. To have played–we're over halfway through the season and only trailed for two and a half minutes of any game, of all games combined. So that part was a lot to deal with because we could very easily be undefeated or certainly with one loss. So I think was good for everybody to get a little break."
Unsurprisingly, Kiffin believed that a break coming off two heartbreaking losses in three weeks was a good thing. But that wasn't the real "surprising stat" takeaway.
"Only trailed for two and a half minutes among all games combined?" That seemed like a wild stat to just drop casually, but no one even asked a follow-up question about it. Was that number actually true?
No, not exactly, but Kiffin was close. The truth is that the Ole Miss Rebels have trailed for a total of 14 minutes and 29 seconds all season long. And they only ever truly trailed at all in their one game against Kentucky. LSU never had the lead until Garrett Nussmeier's ridiculous touchdown toss to wide receiver Kyren Lacy in overtime to win the game.
So yes, Ole Miss has played 420 total minutes of football this year and has trailed for just 14 of them. That's the sign of a dominant team. Kiffin continued on his disappointment in critical games considering how hard his players have fought, and how much they've completely owned the competition, even in losses:
"I think it was really tough initially, because that game [against LSU], it's one thing if you go into to a game and you feel like the team wasn't ready and just having these personnel issues all over the place. That was a game [where] we went in, took the lead, thought guys responded, played well in an historically extremely hard place–I don't even know the percentages–but it's got to be one of, if not the hardest place percentage-wise to win and score points at night. So I thought guys did a really good job in that. And then we let it get away at the end. Again we had the ball a couple times, a four-point lead, and could have put the game away. [LSU] made two big fourth down conversions, including the play of a lifetime by the quarterback, or else we win the game."
In both Ole Miss' loss against LSU and their loss against Kentucky the Rebels destroyed their opponents in total offensive yards and per play efficiency. Ole Miss committed a few too many penalties against LSU and their quarterback converted a couple crazy fourth down conversions. Ole Miss fumbled the ball away late against Kentucky and then fell victim to a 60-yard bomb on fourth down thanks to a Barion Brown push-off. Otherwise both games should have been victories for Jaxson Dart, Tre Harris, and company.
If you want more evidence beyond just "holding the lead" that Ole Miss has dominated all year long, just reference the post below from Bud Davis. Ole Miss is a Tier 1 team in both offensive and defensive "Expected Pointed Added" per play when adjusting for the difficulty of opponent.
What does that mean? On a per play basis Ole Miss is both a top five offensive and defensive team, even when you adjust for strength of schedule.
Lane Kiffin is right to be extremely frustrated with Ole Miss' record so far. They should be undefeated, in line to make it to the SEC Championship right now. Not fighting for the life just to steal the final College Football Playoff spot.
Ole Miss still has to execute down the stretch, but the stats don't lie here. The Rebels are an elite team who has fallen to a couple instances of bad fortune. Don't be surprised if they shock the world and win out.
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