Ole Miss ranks first in returning production among all 2024 College Football Playoff contenders
Every single year–now more than ever–college football programs have to reload their rosters with new faces in new places. Players from every team around the country move on to the NFL Draft, transfer, or unfortunately even sometimes give up on football entirely. Yes, each college football team ends up looking quite different than the previous […]
Every single year–now more than ever–college football programs have to reload their rosters with new faces in new places. Players from every team around the country move on to the NFL Draft, transfer, or unfortunately even sometimes give up on football entirely. Yes, each college football team ends up looking quite different than the previous season's roster did just a few short months prior.
So, how important is it really to rank highly in returning production when it comes to having immense success in today's college football? It used to be that the blue blood programs like Alabama, Georgia, or Ohio State would just replace the vast majority of their production year over year and be right back in the mix to compete for a championship. But lately things look like that trend may be changing, at least for most top programs.
Take Ole Miss for example. Lane Kiffin seems to have built the perfect modern hybrid roster. They have averaged Top 25 classes on the high school football recruiting side and Top 3 transfer classes three years in a row. Thanks to that roster building method Ole Miss returns 70% of their production from last season, and helped the team add much-needed talent along their defensive front. Will this method of roster building prove to be the winning formula in the new age of college football?
Ole Miss Football Returning Production
Every year, ESPN's Bill Connelly (one of the best in the business) puts together his SP+ returning production rankings. If you're unfamiliar with SP+, simply put it is a composite analytics system that measures team production, success, and efficiency in a variety of ways. It's one of the best and most proven measures of team composition (and future success) out there.
And as you can see in Bill Connelly's post below, Ole Miss ranks 22nd in returning production among all FBS programs. But more importantly, they rank first in returning production among teams with greater than a 3% chance at winning the championship, according to latest Vegas betting odds.
To be clear, returning production isn't necessarily the "predictive" aspect of SP+ at all. It's quite literally just an expression of how much production a team brings back. However, in Ole Miss' case, their returning production in combination with their high pedigree transfers may be the perfect formula to push them over the top.
So who are the most important returning and new players for Ole Miss who could carry them to a college football national championship?
Most Important Returning Players
Jaxson Dart is obviously the most important player for Ole Miss, but he might end up being the single most important player in all of college football this year. He runs Kiffin's scheme perfectly, processes quickly, and makes efficient decisions. Dart posted top ten marks in adjusted yards per pass attempt, yards per play, and every key rushing rate stat last year among power conference QBs. If he take's one more step forward Ole Miss should be in the College Football Playoff.
Plus, you have to appreciate his swagger. His "Why Not Us?" post is exactly the kind of confidence you want to see out of an SEC quarterback.
Outside of Dart, his primary wide receiver Tre Harris should be a matchup nightmare against every SEC team's best defensive back week in and week out.
Plus, the dynamic defensive back duo of Trey Washington and John Saunders Jr. have grown into one of the best safety tandems in all of college football. They collectively snagged six interceptions, defended six more passes, and tallied nearly 150 tackles together last fall. Their chemistry and communication on the back end of the defense will be key.
Most Important New Players
By most measures the Ole Miss defense was well above average last season, except when it came to playing against top teams like Georgia, LSU, and Texas A&M. In fact, those were the only three games that the Rebels allowed more than 25 points. However, Lane Kiffin knew the defense needed a few more studs if Ole Miss was going to reach the College Football Playoff, so the Portal King went to work.
Walter Nolen, a former five star defensive tackle from Texas A&M, will be the key to stopping the run and wreaking havoc up the middle in pass rush. Princely Umanmielen, an edge defender who posted a 19% pass rush pressure rate last season for Florida, will pair up with Nolen to give Ole Miss two elite playmakers up front.
Then at cornerback, Ole Miss may have multiple new starters there with Trey Amos (from Alabama) and Brandon Turnage (from Tennessee). Amos is an established star with nearly 2000 snaps at cornerback already. Turnage has been a long-time contributor, but will be given potentially his biggest role ever at Ole Miss. This tandem's success will be incredibly important to the Rebels' success as well.
Will this mix of new and returning players spell ultimate victory for Ole Miss? It's hard tell in May, but it certainly looks like all of the right pieces are finally there for Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.
Be looking for more Ole Miss Football coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
And if you want to watch some Princely Umanmielen highlights to see how much pressure he could bring off the edge you can check out the video below!
