Ole Miss Rebels fans get unbelievable news from national media College Football Playoff projections ahead of Florida Gators game

Are the Ole Miss Rebels and Lane Kiffin already a lock for the college football Playoff?

Travis May — College Football Managing Editor
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The College Football Playoff is barely just a month away and the Ole Miss Rebels are currently sitting with a 9-1 record as they head into the final stretch. It’s fair to say that it certainly looks like Lane Kiffin and company will be headed to the playoff, but that definitely could have been said last season too as the team headed into the Florida Gators game. Are they really already nearly a lock?

SportsLine (a CBS Sports entity) and their College Football Playoff projections model certainly thinks that Ole Miss is about as much of a lock to make it as they can currently be. According to their numbers, Ole Miss is one of just six teams who currently possess a greater than 94% chance of making it to the College Football Playoff. Does that math really add up? Can Ole Miss fans finally just relax and not worry about missing out? Let’s dive in.

Ole Miss remaining schedule prior to playoff

  • Florida Gators at home, November 15
  • Mississippi State at Starkville, November 28
  • Possible SEC Championship Game, December 6
  • Ole Miss likely needs Alabama and Georgia both to lose a game to make it to the SEC Championship Game

SportsLine College Football Playoff Projections Model

  • Ohio State Buckeyes 99.9%
  • Texas A&M Aggies 99.8%
  • Indiana Hoosiers 99.8%
  • Georgia Bulldogs 95.3%
  • Ole Miss Rebels 95.3%
  • Alabama Crimson Tide 94.5%
  • Oregon Ducks 83.0%
  • Texas Tech Red Raiders 71.8%
  • Notre Dame Fighting Irish 71.3%
  • Texas Longhorns 41.8%
  • Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 41.5%
  • Vanderbilt Commodores 37.8%

The SportsLine “Inside the Lines” projections model built out probabilities to make the College Football Playoff for all 32 teams with virtually any chance to make it left in the FBS, and you can find the Top 12 most likely to make it in above this paragraph. Ohio State, Texas A&M, and the Indiana Hoosiers are obvious considering they’re all still undefeated to this point in the season. However, after that, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama also have seemingly ridiculously high odds to make the playoff considering what they all still have to face.

Yes, Georgia and Alabama should be able to survive their remaining schedules with only one or zero additional losses. Yes, Ole Miss should take care of business, but 95% odds to make the playoff? That’s some extreme confidence from any kind of statistical modeling. However, once the remaining probabilities are calculated on the Rebels schedule things start to add up (full list of probabilities by team featured in post below).

Trinidad Chambliss and the Ole Miss Rebels offense has been on fire nearly all season long. They’ve scored 30 or more points in all but two games, tallying 148 points scored in the last four games alone as the Rebels look unstoppable now. Given their momentum, strength of record, efficiency on both sides of the ball, and current situation ahead of Florida they currently have a projected win probability against Florida somewhere between 85% and 90% according to all major sports books. They’ll be considered an even greater favorite against Mississippi State. That gives Ole Miss a combined probability of emerging undefeated over the next two weeks somewhere around 80%.

Given the remaining playoff eligible teams and their records it’s become quite clear that Ole Miss can likely still lose one of the next two games and make the playoff. If their odds of beating both Florida and Mississippi State are around 80%, and their odds of losing to either is less than 15%, their chances of losing both battles is obviously extremely low. If both remaining outcomes are 15% (or lower) odds to lose for Ole Miss, then the 95% odds projection to make the playoff is actually possibly a tad too low (should be more like 98%).

Still, Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin will have to take care of business, but the math is clear. They’re multiple-touchdown favorites over both of the remaining teams on their schedule for a reason. The Rebels are going to the playoff. The question is, will that be enough to keep Lane Kiffin with the Rebels long term when other SEC programs come calling?

We’ll be back with more Ole Miss Rebels coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

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