Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Final Score Predictions: Will Rebels secure College Football Playoff spot with Egg Bowl win?

Lane Kiffin will overshadow the Egg Bowl, but this is a crucial moment that could help Ole Miss secure a home playoff game

Adam Holt, Ryan Roberts, Travis May, Zach Ragan
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This isn’t any ordinary Egg Bowl rivalry game between Ole Miss and Mississippi State. In fact, the rivalry itself has been completely overshadowed by the Lane Kiffin head coaching drama. Regardless, if the Ole Miss Rebels take care of business against Mississippi State they’ll definitely lock in their College Football Playoff spot. If the Bulldogs beat the Rebels? And Lane Kiffin leaves? The selection committee might do the unthinkable.

Despite all the distractions off the field surrounding this game, Ole Miss has still looked like one of the most dominant teams in the country all year with their only loss coming to Georgia in Athens. Mississippi State would love to play spoilers here, and their 5-6 record is deceiving, considering three of their SEC losses have been by just one score.

Considering the playoff implications, the fierce rivalry, and potential Lane Kiffin head coaching decision impact, media members from A to Z Sports who cover the sport nationally decided to weigh in, predicting a winner. The picks are in. Enjoy!

Key Stats for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State Egg Bowl Rivalry Game

  • The Ole Miss Rebels rank top 20 in the nation via most every single offensive metric while Mississippi State ranks outside the top 50 almost across the board, including key efficiency measures like EPA per play, yards per play, and success rate
  • Ole Miss ranks easily inside the top 20 in net adjusted EPA per play (accounting for schedule strength and both sides of the ball) while Mississippi State ranks 68th
  • Mississippi State ranks 10th in explosive plays of 40 or more yards, which has saved them in multiple games this season
  • Ole Miss has risen up into the top 25 in both defensive pass success rate allowed and 3rd down defense despite their raw yardage totals making it look like they aren’t strong on that side of the ball

Ole Miss 40, Mississippi State 23

The Lane Kiffin decision is coming. There’s nothing Rebels fans can do about it, and they may not like his answer. However, the players can in fact do something about it if they want to keep their head coach home with Ole Miss. The Rebels already enter this week’s Egg Bowl rivalry game with a top ten offense in the country, a special dual threat quarterback in Trinidad Chambliss, a record-breaking running back in Kewan Lacy, and a talented defense that hasn’t allowed more than 26 points in a game since they faced Georgia a month and a half ago. They’re going to want to make a statement as they head into the College Football Playoff that they should be considered an elite team, with or without Lane Kiffin. Mississippi State could keep it closer than some expect if they continue hitting on some explosive plays to star wide receivers Brenen Thompson or Anthony Evans, but a blowout is more likely. – Travis May, A to Z Sports CFB & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Ole Miss 31, Mississippi State 24

“I don’t think there’s a harder game to predict this week. Ole Miss, of course, is the better team. But the Lane Kiffin saga could prove to be a major distraction for Ole Miss as the future of the program is murky until Kiffin’s decision is made. Plus it’s the Egg Bowl (we all know how crazy this game can get), and the game is in Starkville. Still, I like the more talented team in this matchup. I think Ole Miss will get the job done, but I don’t think it’ll be a blowout. Ole Miss 31 Mississippi State 24.” – Zach Ragan, A to Z Sports Tennessee

Ole Miss 34, Mississippi State 20

“With all the attention around head coach Lane Kiffin and the head coaching searches at LSU and Florida, I do expect the Rebels to come out a little slow to begin this football game. Those types of distractions do tend to be a little worse for college kids, and how they deal with those emotions will determine if we get a letdown game at all. Even though Jeff Lebby has done a nice job at Mississippi State so far, the talent gap is just too much. I expect Kewan Lacy to have another big day at running back, and quarterback Trinidad Chambliss should create a few big plays for Ole Miss too.” – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame

Ole Miss 31, Mississippi State 24

“The Battle for the Golden Egg nearly never disappoints. It’s rarely a blowout for either side, and there’s plenty of feistiness involved. I wouldn’t expect this year’s matchup to change that with so much controversy swirling. For Ole Miss, it’s expected that Lane Kiffin will coach this game and then announce his plans for the future not long after. Florida and LSU are hot in pursuit, but the Rebels are firmly in the College Football Playoff discussion. As for Mississippi State, they can play spoiler here, but that won’t be easy. They’ve struggled to stop the run in recent weeks, and Kewan Lacy is really impressive for Ole Miss. It feels like the Mississippi State offense may play a strong hand in deciding this one. Jeff Lebby will probably (wrongly) start Blake Shapen at QB over freshman Kamario Taylor. That would further decrease my confidence that the Bulldogs pull off the upset.” – Adam Holt, A to Z Sports New Orleans

Final Score Predictions for Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State

The A to Z Sports staff is expecting the Ole Miss Rebels to take care of business in the Egg Bowl, ensuring they lock in their College Football Playoff spot and perhaps a home postseason game. On average, our staff expects Ole Miss to win with a final score somewhere around 34-23, about a half touchdown more bullish on the Rebels than sports books. A statement win like that would be a great opportunity for Lane Kiffin to announce the ultimate, “I’m not leaving!”, moment. Or, it could be a nice final hoorah should he indeed embarrassingly abandon his team amid the greatest Ole Miss season ever.

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