Making sense of Oregon Ducks College Football Playoffs scenarios after Big Ten victory over Wisconsin

The best word to describe the Oregon Ducks victory over Wisconsin is "survival." They toughed out a very physical matchup with the Badgers, who played incredibly well, especially on defense and in the run game.The Ducks found a way to get it done, with a crucial defense play to all but end the game. Now […]

Jon Helmkamp
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The best word to describe the Oregon Ducks victory over Wisconsin is "survival." They toughed out a very physical matchup with the Badgers, who played incredibly well, especially on defense and in the run game.

The Ducks found a way to get it done, with a crucial defense play to all but end the game. Now heading into a bye week before their final regular season game, it's fair for Ducks fans to start looking ahead to what a College Football Playoffs situation might look like. Oregon is all but a lock for the Big Ten Championship at this point, with the outcome of that game paving their CFP road. Let's look at some scenarios.

Ducks win the Big Ten Championship Game: First-round bye

If the Ducks win the Big Ten Championship, then they are guaranteed to get a first-round bye as one of the top four seeds in the country. That's a given. There's also essentially no way that the No. 1 team in the country, after beating either Ohio State or an undefeated Indiana, would be anything less than the No. 1 seed going into the CFP. 

The No. 1 seed would get to choose the host site bowl game that they would play in the semifinals, and they would play against the winner of the No. 8 vs No. 9 first round playoff game. 

Oregon, a west coast team, would absolutely choose to play their bowl game in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. As of now, there are a bunch of teams in the mix for that range, including but not limited to Penn State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Indiana, Ohio State, maybe even Miami or Ole Miss. There are a lot of options.

Oregon should be hoping for one of the non-SEC teams to be their matchup in Pasadena, and would have a great path to the semifinals. Unless that's Ohio State.

Here's how that happens: Ohio State and Indiana play next weekend. If Indiana knocks Ohio State out of the Big Ten Championship game, Ohio State would go into the College Football Playoffs as one of the at-large bids. Oregon then beating Indiana could potentially set up a scenario where a second-round date with Ohio State is possible.

Ducks lose the Big Ten Championship Game: Hosting a first-round matchup

If the Ducks lose the Big Ten Championship Game, it's not the end of the world, but it does mean the Ducks would have a longer road to a championship appearance. This team, if they lose in the conference championship to Ohio State or an undefeated Indiana, would likely be looking at the No. 5 seed, and having to play in the first round of the playoffs.

As the No. 5 seed, Oregon would host the No. 12 seed for a home playoff game in Autzen Stadium. That's still not a bad route to take. The 12-seed is a bit of an interesting situation. 

The fifth conference champion will be seeded where it was ranked or at No. 12 if it is outside the top 12 rankings," per the College Football Playoffs website. The highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, at this point, is likely to slot in as the No. 12 seed in the College Football Playoffs. We’re looking at a Mountain West or Big 12 champion likely being the option, putting teams like Boise State, BYU, SMU, or even Colorado in the range of this spot.

Oregon hosting one of these teams in Autzen is still a good path forward for the Ducks. 

Follow along all year for more Oregon Ducks coverage on A to Z Sports. You can find me on X @JonHelmkamp, as well as follow our main page @AtoZSportsNFL for all the latest news.

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