Oregon Ducks star will be a first-round pick in 2025 NFL Draft if he dominates College Football Playoff and Senior Bowl
The Ducks are the toast of the town, with Oregon going 13-0, winning the Big Ten Championship, and preparing for a New Year's Day Rose Bowl appearance. While there's plenty still to focus on this year, the NFL Draft is looming in the background. One player in particular has a path to rocket up draft […]
The Ducks are the toast of the town, with Oregon going 13-0, winning the Big Ten Championship, and preparing for a New Year's Day Rose Bowl appearance. While there's plenty still to focus on this year, the NFL Draft is looming in the background. One player in particular has a path to rocket up draft boards, and I'm planting my flag now that it happens.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, No. 8 in your box score and No. 1 in your hearts, is going to be a first round pick. I'm calling it.
Gabriel was just announced as a Heisman Trophy finalist and accepted his invite to the Reese's Senior Bowl, following a similar path to last year's Oregon quarterback, Bo Nix. Gabriel has the same makeup of intangibles that could have NFL front offices excited about his longterm outlook.
The NFL is looking more and more for quarterbacks that are coming out of college pro-ready, already holding plenty of experience on their resumes. No one has more experience than Gabriel, who passed Nix's all-time starts record of 61 with 63 of his own before this year's playoffs get under way. Gabriel has played in big games, rising to the occasion and delivering big wins. His Red River Rivalry game from 2023 saw him march down the field against Texas, on the road, and pull off a last-second touchdown to seal the game. In the Big Ten Championship game this year, Gabriel completed 69% of his passes for 283 yards and four touchdowns with zero turnovers.
How about against Ohio State? 67% completion percentage, 341 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, with 32 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown as well to give Oregon it's biggest home victory in Autzen Stadium history. Ohio State has only allowed one other quarterback all year to go over 200 passing yards — Northwestern's Jack Lausch with 201.
Gabriel might not have the most eye-popping total numbers from this season, although they're plenty respectable. He finished the regular season with 3,558 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, averaging 273.7 passing yards per game. Context is important, though. The Ducks, on plenty of occasions, coasted in the second half of games with comfortable leads, opting to run the ball and kill the clock.
His metrics look great, though. Among all power-four quarterbacks, Gabriel finished the season ranking 2nd in completion percentage, 7th in air yards per attempt, 6th in passer rating, 2nd in QBR, 4th in Total Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, and 6th in EPA/Play. He was right up near the top in essentially all meaningful metrics.
Gabriel might not be the flashiest player, but he's tough, physical, athletic, has a lightning fast release, and understands defenses. With a great showing throughout the College Football Playoffs and down in Mobile for the Senior Bowl, he has every opportunity to be a first round quarterback.
Follow along all year for more Oregon Ducks coverage on A to Z Sports. You can find me on Bluesky @jonhelmkamp.bsky.social, as well as follow our main page @AtoZSports.bsky.social for all the latest news.
