How the College Football Playoff picture can unfold for the Texas A&M Aggies after conference championships

Here’s what the College Football Playoff picture would look like for the Texas A&M Aggies

AJ Schulte — College Football Trending News Writer
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Nov 15, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies safety Dalton Brooks (25) reacts after an interception during the second quarter against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Kyle Field.
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The College Football Playoff this year has been a roller coaster of a ride, and trying to figure out what the committee is going to do on a weekly basis has felt more of a fool’s errand this year than seemingly any season prior. Fortunately for the Texas A&M Aggies, they know they are in the CFP, no matter what.

Where the issue arises is where exactly the Aggies will be seeded and who would they play in their first CFP game under head coach Mike Elko. With a chaotic weekend of college football still ahead of us, the answer to that is: it depends.

There are plenty of scenarios for the Aggies in the playoffs. Who are they most likely to play? Who would be their best matchup that fans should root for? How would they move up or down? Let’s break it down. Bear with me, as this can get kind of hectic.

Texas A&M Aggies College Football Playoff Scenarios

Most Likely Scenario

Let’s assume in this scenario, chalk holds, and the favorites in every conference championship win. That would mean Ohio State beats Indiana, Georgia beats Alabama, Texas Tech beats BYU, and Virginia beats Duke. That would lock in the top four seeds as Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech, and Indiana (in my opinion), and give Virginia the last auto-bid as highest-ranked conference champion. 

If that happens, the Aggies would be locked into the No.7 seed, unless the committee decided to punish Ole Miss for the Lane Kiffin saga. Since that doesn’t appear super likely at this point, the Aggies are stuck at the No.7 spot. There, they would host No. 10 Alabama at home to re-ignite a fairly storied saga between these two teams ever since the Aggies joined the SEC. The two schools haven’t played the last two seasons, but the Tide are winners of two straight matchups and have dominated the history between these two schools.

Best Case Scenario

In my opinion, the best case scenario for the Aggies is drawing Virginia at home or the Group of Five team. It’s not a completely unrealistic scenario either. All they need is for BYU to upset Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game and then for chalk to hold elsewhere. If that happens, Texas Tech would fall out of the top six seeds, while Texas A&M would move up by default. Unless the committee once again decides to punish Ole Miss, the Aggies likely won’t jump them for the No. 5 seed to guarantee a Group of Five team. In that scenario, Virginia would travel to Kyle Field in the No.11 seed.

However, it is possible for Texas A&M to draw a Group of Five school as the No. 6 seed. They still need that BYU upset to occur to vault them into the higher seed. On top of that, they would have to root for Mike Elko’s former team, the Duke Blue Devils, to take down Virginia in the ACC Championship. Were that to happen, North Texas/Tulane and James Madison would get into the College Football Playoff, one as the No.11 seed and the other as the No.12 seed. It wouldn’t quiet the noise around A&M’s strength of schedule, but a win is a win.

Worst Case Scenario

Unlike a few other teams, I don’t see a pathway for A&M to not host a game. However, the quality of opponent can vary wildly. A&M can host a G5 team or Virginia fairly easily. In my opinion, however, the worst case scenario is drawing one of the SEC teams vying for an at-large position. The Aggies could face either Alabama, as mentioned above, or play host to the Oklahoma Sooners in the first round before having to potentially take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the following round.

To play Oklahoma, there would only need to be one “upset” based on the current favorites: Alabama defeating Georgia. Alabama would leapfrog the field to leap into a top four seed and Georgia would fall out of the top group, pushing down every team below them. For A&M, that would mean dropping from No.7 to No.8 and hosting the Sooners, who would slip from 8 to 9.

The only time the Aggies have played a defense close to Oklahoma’s talent along the defensive line was when they played the Texas Longhorns last week, and it did not end well for A&M. I don’t particularly love how A&M matches up with Oklahoma, and it has all the makings of an ugly, ugly game. Right on the heels of that, they’d have to play the (likely) No. 1 seed in Ohio State. No thank you.

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