Arch Manning Heisman Trophy odds drop off a cliff following disappointing loss to Ohio State, but is that an overreaction?
Arch Manning goes from Heisman favorite to long shot in a matter of hours
It’s not Arch Manning’s fault that his hype had reached absolutely absurd levels heading into the 2025 college football season. Media members and fans all over the country just assumed he would hit the ground running from day one and dominate, regardless of the opponent he was facing.
The Ohio State Buckeyes shut that down immediately on Saturday as they limited Arch Manning to just 170 passing yards, one passing touchdown, and an interception, defeating Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns 14-7.
Manning entered Saturday with +500 betting odds (around 17% probability) to win the Heisman Trophy–the most storied award and trophy in football–but that quickly changed after the young NFL legacy struggled to complete simple passes all day long.
Arch Manning may have already destroyed his Heisman odds after loss to Ohio State
Arch Manning and his Texas Longhorns got off to an extremely slow start, going eight straight drives and over three quarters without scoring against Ohio State on Saturday.
Manning still had less than 100 passing yards as the 4th quarter kicked off, and about that time sports books began completely cratering his odds to win the Heisman. A 1 in 6 shot to win the award for “best player in college football” dropped all the way to +1000 odds, or about 9% as it looked like Texas was a lock to lose to Ohio State.
However, just as all hope looked lost, Arch Manning put together his best drive of the day, connecting with wide receiver Ryan Wingo for a 28-yard completion, then finished things off with a 32-yard touchdown to Parker Livingstone.
Immediately following that wild 60-yard drive that put Texas back within just seven points of Ohio State (14-7 at the time), Manning saw his Heisman odds briefly skyrocket back upwards near or above 20% in some cases. It seemed as though fans around the country were trying to “buy low” quickly all at once (as you can see illustrated in the Arch Manning Heisman odds prediction market ticker image below).
Unfortunately, after Manning ultimately fell short on the very next drive, ending the game for Texas in a depressing loss. His odds then plummeted once again, all the way down to as low as just 6%.
After the dust settled, most sports books placed Manning’s Heisman odds somewhere between six and seven percent (around +1400 odds), easily cutting his chances at the trophy by more than half compared to Saturday morning.
Was that steep a drop really warranted? And how should Texas Longhorns feel right about now when it comes to the supposed phenom quarterback?
In short, it’s extremely tough to win the Heisman as just one bad game can quickly derail even the best campaign. However, it’s much better that Arch Manning’s struggles are happening early rather than later. When Heisman favorites struggle late in the season that typically ends any shot they ever had at winning it.
As for how Longhorns fans should feel, Manning simply looked like a first year full-time starter against an elite defense on the road. Did he miss several easy lay-up throws? Absolutely. Is he all of a sudden bad at football? No.
It may take more than just one week for Arch Manning to get into midseason form, so Texas fans should rest easy knowing the talent is still there–he just needs to put the Ohio State loss behind him, learn from it, and make a few more good decisions every single week.
We’ll be back with more Texas Longhorns coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
