A closer look at Arch Manning’s stats shows just how wild his season’s been
A deep dive into Arch Manning’s volatile 2025 season reveals wild statistical swings — exposing both his elite upside and his lingering inconsistencies.
As the Longhorns prepare to take on Mississippi State this weekend, hundreds of social media influencers and news outlets have lambasted Arch Manning for his lackluster play in last Saturday’s 16-13 win over Kentucky. However, a deeper dive into his numbers reveals massive swings in performance that allow journalists, naysayers, and fanboys alike to read whatever story they want into the young QB. When you replay his tapes, a revealing picture emerges — one of extreme volatility rather than steady progression.
Manning’s passing numbers show big swings and sharp edges
You’d be hard-pressed to find another college player who’s been under this much scrutiny: being the nephew of Peyton Manning and Eli Manning puts the young QB under a sweltering spotlight. But if you take the time to study his numbers, you quickly realize that Arch is operating like a prism: everyone sees exactly what they want to see. That ambiguity is as much his burden as it is his identity — and it shows on the stat sheet.
Manning’s week-to-week volatility for on-target percentage is absolutely wild. His positives have reached as high as 17.4, while his negatives go as low as -12.1. Few quarterbacks swing this much from game to game.
Through seven games of the 2025 season, Manning has completed 114 of 189 passes (60.3 %) for 1,449 yards, 12 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, compiling a passing rating of 140.4. On one hand, these aren’t catastrophic numbers. On the other, they’re not the sort of baseline you’d expect when the hype machine is running full steam.
So let’s talk about the swings: In games where Manning has looked sharp — for example the 23-of-28 with three passing touchdowns against Sam Houston Bearkats — you see a quarterback operating with rhythm and confidence.
However, in other outings, such as last Saturday’s game against the Kentucky Wildcats, Manning’s completion percentage has dipped as low as 44%.
Manning’s rushing output shows flash but not consistency
Manning’s rushing stats provide more proof of just how up-and-down his season has been. Through the same period he has 58 rushing attempts for 193 yards (3.33 yards/attempt) and 5 rushing touchdowns. In the first half of games, he averages just 2.78 yards/attempt with 4 of his 5 touchdowns coming early. In the second half/OT, his average rises to 3.81 yards/attempt but only 1 touchdown. When he’s sharp early, he can make big plays with his legs; but when the game tightens, his rushing impact erodes.
So far Arch Manning’s best rushing game in 2025 was against San Jose State on September 6th, where he had a 20-yard rushing touchdown and helped lead the team to a dominant 55-0 win over Sam Houston. However, against the Kentucky Wildcats, he finished with -1 rushing yards on 11 carries — far from the consistency you’d want to see as the playoffs approach.
The dual reality of Manning’s season
When you carry the Manning name into the starting QB job at Texas, everything gets magnified — the throw that hits the receiver, the one that sails by; the scramble that works, the designed run that stalls. Critics will point to turnovers and stagnation in the second half of games; supporters will highlight the flashes of elite arm strength, mobility, and field vision.
But taking a deeper dive into his numbers suggests that headlines like “struggling Arch Manning” and “Arch Manning stuns critics” both miss the mark. Yes, he’s showing major problems — inconsistency, occasional timing issues, and the heavy weight of expectations, but he’s also showing high-ceiling traits: three-touchdown games, dominant moments, and the capacity to flip a game in a drive.
In truth, Manning’s season is a balancing act between promise and pressure, and every snap feels like a test of which side will win out.
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