Despite having a down year, Arch Manning will most likely be a first-round draft pick
Arch Manning’s 2025 season has been uneven, but his arm strength, poise, and NFL traits keep scouts intrigued. Despite the criticism, his draft stock remains strong.
Arch Manning came into 2025 with the kind of expectations few college players could survive. A Manning in burnt orange, leading a preseason No. 1 Texas team, and carrying all the weight of his family’s legacy—the story practically wrote itself. Now, halfway through the season, the narrative has changed. The sophomore QB’s numbers are modest (1,449 yards, 12 TDs, and five interceptions, QBR 58.6), and Texas has already suffered two losses. Still, NFL scouts aren’t blinking.
Why Arch Manning’s tough season hasn’t derailed his NFL future
After an ugly victory last Saturday over the Kentucky Wildcats (16-13) in which Manning completed less than 45% of his passes, throwing only 132 yards and zero touchdowns, the internet erupted with articles predicting his downfall. Still, from a wider historical perspective, it’s likely Arch Manning’s shaky season will not have shaken his NFL Draft stock.
Despite the inconsistency, NFL evaluators continue to see that the young QB has tools that can translate to the next level. Manning has the size (6-foot-4, 219 pounds), arm strength, and mobility to intrigue teams. His deep-ball metrics back that up: 11.2 air yards per attempt ranks among the best in the country, and six of his 12 touchdowns have come on throws of 20 yards or more. What’s hurt him most has been timing and mechanics—too many late releases, too many throws off-platform. But as history shows, the NFL is willing to overlook rough tape if the player’s traits are right.
Quarterbacks Josh Allen, Trey Lance, and Anthony Richardson all entered the draft with limited experience and questions about their accuracy, and still went high. Manning fits that mold—a strong passer whose potential ceiling outweighs his current production numbers.
The Longhorns’ offensive line issues have magnified his flaws; Texas lost four starters from last year’s playoff run, and Manning has faced relentless pressure, forcing off-balance throws and rushed reads.
However, the criticism hasn’t rattled him. After The Athletic labeled him “college football’s first flop,” Manning brushed it off. “I wasn’t playing well,” he admitted. “I’m going to continue to get better. You can’t ride the highs and lows.” That composure, perhaps more important than his stat line, is what keeps his draft stock intact.
Whether he declares in 2026 or waits another year, Arch Manning still looks the part of an NFL quarterback. The arm talent is there. The leadership is there. The only thing missing is time and investment.
Texas Longhorns News
Despite a narrow win in Lexington, Arch Manning’s performance left little to write home about
Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns survived a 16–13 overtime win against Kentucky, but the sophomore quarterback struggled in yet another uneven outing.
