The Texas Longhorns and Vanderbilt Commodores are playing in what is essentially an elimination game for consideration to be in the College Football Playoff this week. Texas already has two losses, and a third would be a nail in the coffin given their schedule. Vanderbilt only has one loss, but the Commodores certainly won’t be given the benefit of the doubt by the playoff selection committee with two losses thanks to their helmets.

Texas still has Arch Manning in concussion protocol (as of publication), so Steve Sarkisian and company might be in a tough spot this weekend, but the offense is finally starting to click.

Vanderbilt is putting together the best season program history, but how many times can they beat teams who should have them beaten on paper from a talent standpoint?

Given how important this game is going to be deciding the path to the College Football Playoff and perhaps the SEC Championship Game, media members from A to Z Sports who cover both teams decided to weigh in, predicting a winner. The picks are in. Enjoy!

Vanderbilt 24, Texas 23

Quarterback Diego Pavia has been everything for Vanderbilt this season. He’s accounting for nearly 30% of the team’s rushing yards. He’s completing nearly 70% of his passes, ranks third among all FBS quarterbacks in QBR, and is one of the best in the country at avoiding pass rush pressure with a sub-9% pressure to sack rate. Vanderbilt’s offense is going to score points, that much is guaranteed.

The question is, can Texas slow them down enough to hang with the Commodores, with and perhaps without Arch Manning? Manning is still in concussion protocol (as of this writing) and the Longhorns might be in trouble without him. Either way, the Commodores likely get more late-game heroics from Pavia and squeak out an exciting SEC win. – Travis May, A to Z Sports CFB & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Vanderbilt 31, Texas 23

Vanderbilt hasn’t beaten a ranked team on the road since 2007, but Saturday feels like the moment that streak finally ends. The Commodores have flirted with an upset before – most notably at Alabama – only to watch turnovers derail their chances. This trip to Austin, however, comes against a Texas team that’s been anything but convincing. The Longhorns should have blown out Mississippi State last week, yet somehow found themselves in overtime before escaping with a narrow win. That kind of inconsistency doesn’t bode well against a disciplined, opportunistic Vanderbilt squad.

The game will hinge on quarterback Diego Pavia’s composure. When he protects the football, Vanderbilt’s offense hums. Texas’ defense can create havoc, but it’s also prone to lapses that Pavia can exploit with his mobility and deep accuracy. With Arch Manning’s status uncertain and Texas struggling to establish rhythm offensively, Vanderbilt’s aggressive defensive front could control the game. Don’t be surprised if the ‘Dores walk out of Austin with the win. – Nick Wright, A to Z Sports Texas

Texas 24, Vanderbilt 20

The vibes around Vanderbilt football are exceptionally high right now, and both head coach Clark Lea and quarterback Diego Pavia have this team playing with deep belief every week. At some point, however, talent is going to win out one of these weeks. While Texas has been incredibly inconsistent during the season so far, their defense is strong, and this roster still has the ability to create explosive plays. Arch Manning will make a couple of big plays, as will the defense in a big moment. – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame

Vanderbilt 23, Texas 17

If you told someone before the season that this matchup would include a top 10 team and a team ranked at 20 via the AP poll, none of them would have expected the Commodores to be the one in front. Regardless, the gritty style of Vandy on both sides of the ball has willed them into the College Football Playoff discussion. Meanwhile, the Texas offense has been mostly underwhelming so far this season, but their defense has proven its legitimacy pretty consistently. With a bit of unknown around Arch Manning due to injury and a struggling OL, I lean toward Clark Lea’s squad here. Diego Pavia needs to play better than he did a week ago, though. – Adam Holt, A to Z Sports LSU

Final Score Predictions for Texas vs. Vanderbilt

The A to Z Sports staff is torn on this SEC matchup. The sports books have the Longhorns just slightly favored, but our crew believes the wrong team is getting the points. On average, our team picked Vanderbilt to win 24-21 over a Texas team that just hasn’t put it all together for much of this season. If the Commodores actually win, 2025 might truly be the best season in Vanderbilt history.

We’ll be back with more Texas Longhorns and Vanderbilt Commodores coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!