NFL insider pours cold water over assumed truth about Texas QB Arch Manning
Right now, Texas' big concern in front of them is loading up with as many playmakers to help Arch Manning as much as possible. They might've uncovered a gem at running back. But while Steve Sarkisian has the right end goal in mind, that won't stop fans and NFL evaluators from looking to the 2026 […]
Right now, Texas' big concern in front of them is loading up with as many playmakers to help Arch Manning as much as possible. They might've uncovered a gem at running back. But while Steve Sarkisian has the right end goal in mind, that won't stop fans and NFL evaluators from looking to the 2026 NFL Draft.
Manning will be eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft after this season, and there's a huge appetite to project him into the top pick already. The problem with that is he seems relatively unlikely to make the leap after one year as a starter.
Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer confirmed as much this week, saying:
"We need to stop talking about Arch Manning like he’s definitely coming out next year. The family’s history indicates he won’t rush to the NFL. Evidence shows quarterbacks have a better shot in the league the more they play in college. And Arch himself waited his turn for two years at Texas, in an era when players routinely bolt at the first sign of having to spend time on the bench. I’d be surprised, in the end, if he winds up in the 2026 draft class."
Manning has talked about wanting to be a multi-year starter before and wants to see himself make it through all four years at Texas. That task got more realistic when Quinn Ewers returned to the program last offseason.
The former five-star still played but only attempted 90 passes. He completed 67.8% for 939 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions. Manning became the de facto short-game quarterback due to his athleticism, totaling 108 yards and four scores.
Travis May of A to Z projected the 2026 NFL Draft in February and projected Manning to land eighth overall to the Saints. Here was his analysis.
Arch Manning at 8? He should automatically go first overall, right? Wrong. The truth is that the Manning crew has made it quite clear that Arch quite likely will not be entering the 2026 NFL Draft. There's no reason to rush and force his development. However, even if he puts up a good season he'll still only have one full year starting, so despite his last name Arch Manning would be a bit more of a projection than most first round quarterback picks.
But does he have the talent to be an early first round quarterback? Absolutely. Arch Manning was a five star recruit for reason, with far superior athleticism when compared to both of his uncles, Eli and Peyton (as you can see in the post below). He flashed some of that ability last fall already. If he does somehow declare in 2026 after a strong 2025 campaign the Saints would be insane not to select the grandson of Archie Manning, who spent 10+ seasons playing QB in New Orleans.
There's no question Manning has the buzz of a top overall pick, but hiccups are almost surely coming. Texas appears to be the favorite to win the 2025 College Football Playoff, but he'll be more scrutinized than most collegiate players.
Expectations are high, and it might be best for Manning to get two years of experience dealing with the pressure in Austin before making the jump.
If Breer is right, then college football fans may be in for an extra special two-year window for Sarkisian and the Longhorns.
