After an offseason of hype, Heisman Trophy talk, National Championship projections, and unrealistic expectations overall, Texas quarterback Arch Manning has struggled mightily through three games in 2025. In those three contests against Ohio State, San Jose State, and UTEP, Manning has thrown for 579 yards and scored nine total touchdowns, an average of only 193 yards per game through the air. He is also completing just 55.3 percent of his passes with three interceptions. 

Following Manning’s most recent performance against UTEP, which was his worst to date, it has left many to speculate what the issues are. Some have theorized that he must be playing through an injury, while others have diagnosed him with the yips, and others think that the 6-4, 220-pound signal caller just can’t play. Everyone is left grasping at straws to understand what has gone wrong. 

On a recent episode of the Cover 3 Podcast, former Florida State quarterback and College Football analyst Danny Kanell put out his own theory. Manning may have just lost his jump shot, a very interesting metaphor. 

“I don’t want to revel in this because I don’t enjoy this, but Arch Manning’s numbers, 11 of 25 for 114 yards, one touchdown, one interception versus UTEP, does not even come close to telling you how bad it was for Texas,” Kanell explained. “He has mechanical flaws. He is not seeing the field. He looks like somebody who is really, really struggling… I thought there was a chance that he could take him out of the game, that he was going to bench him potentially. He did not because I think he understands the ramifications. If you bench Arch versus UTEP, the amount of story and headlines that will get. He has one more week to get arch Manning figured out. 

“The take that I had on it, which does not bring me any joy, but I don’t think it’s that crazy,” he continued. “There’s almost like a Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, something going on where those guys were all everything they were supposed to be, incredible. Then something happened, and it’s mostly mental where I was wondering how Arch Manning would handle the hysteria that was around him. He downplayed everything, but to me, this is very much a quarterback whose confidence is completely shot.”

While some may roll their eyes at the comparison between Manning and two former NBA Draft busts, the parallels are intriguing to consider. Fultz and Simmons were each former No. 1 overall selections, and both faltered under the pressure of the spotlight while failing to stick to the fundamentals of playing the position at a high level. Both playing basketball, and playing the quarterback position, are heavily reliant on those mechanics. The comparison is between a basketball player’s jump shot and Manning’s mechanics as a passer, which makes more sense than some will admit.

The talent for each, including Manning, is undeniable. Yet, there is clearly something that is killing their fundamentals and technique. This is something much deeper than Manning just not being good at football. 

Kanell continued the comparison. Whatever the issue, it’s something he wants to see addressed and fixed as quickly as possible. 

“I feel like it’s impacting his mechanics, which is the similarity I would compare to both of those guys because at one time, their mechanics look good,” Kanell said. “At one time they could make the shots. We’ve seen Arch make all the throws, and even there were times in that game when he had a couple of nice throws but there are way too many stretches where it is as in Sark was trying to get his confidence up by calling easy routes, quick hitches, crossing routes, and he was missing them. There is something, this is a greater problem. 

“Sark has one week to figure it out, and I don’t know if you can solve it in one week,” added Kanell. “He has got to get Arch to play more free to get him to go out there and play with confidence but the only way to do that is to play your way out of it. He’s got to do that or else when they get to the meat of their SEC schedule, this is going to be a major problem for Texas.”

The developmental track for Arch Manning 

Perhaps the main part of Kanell’s perspective that some people will disagree with is that Manning has one more week to figure it out. He’s trying to portray the importance of Manning’s final cupcake game against Sam Houston State this weekend. After that contest, the Longhorns will have a bye week before back-to-back tests against the Florida Gators and Oklahoma Sooners. The ideal scenario, without question, would be for Manning to have a bounceback week and then have a week of clarity before the beginning of the SEC schedule.

Kanell certainly paints the ideal reality, but I don’t fully buy this being a “make-or-break” week for the Texas signal caller. He is just three games into his first year as a starter, and there is still plenty of football left to be played. Manning is also just a redshirt sophomore who hasn’t been a full-time starter since his senior year of high school. Add in the fact that Manning also played a lower level of competition in high school, and there is still a lot of development in front of him.

While the story of Arch hasn’t been an exciting one so far, at least compared to the offseason expectations, the book isn’t finished yet. With multiple years of eligibility remaining, the odds are still in Manning’s favor to become a tremendous football player down the road, especially while working with head coach Steve Sarkisian. Perhaps some just got the timing of his breakout a bit off.

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