Texas Longhorns rated even higher than you think for the 2024 college football season according to oddsmakers
Heading into the 2024 college football season many fan bases have a greater sense of hope and possibility thanks to the advent of the 12-team playoff era. Several more teams should have a much better shot at making it to the College Football Playoff. But which teams can really make it? And which teams among […]
Heading into the 2024 college football season many fan bases have a greater sense of hope and possibility thanks to the advent of the 12-team playoff era. Several more teams should have a much better shot at making it to the College Football Playoff. But which teams can really make it? And which teams among that group can actually win it all? According to odds makers the Texas Longhorns are right there in the mix, and perhaps even better than most believe.
Vegas is Bullish on the Longhorns
One of the best College Football data minds out there, Joshua "Bud" Davis, used Vegas win totals and schedules to create a power rating for every FBS team this week. Using all objective data available he created a point spread against the "FBS average" football team on a neutral field for all 134 schools. The results can be seen in his "CFB Market-Derived Team Tiers" post featured below.
Seeing Texas listed second likely surprises many fans, but let's talk it through.
College Football Championship odds and win totals have been out for a few weeks now. Texas had emerged as a consensus "top four" team alongside Georgia, Ohio State, and Oregon. However, in many cases their implied win total ranked fourth or fifth. And their championship odds have been fluctuating near fourth as well. So what's changed?
Now that more games are coming out to bet on for the majority of the 2024 college football season slate, Vegas has been compiling a larger data set of action and consensus betting market perception is becoming much more clear. It turns out the Texas Longhorns are the second highest power rated team according to betting markets as of this writing. But why? What exactly do the Longhorns have going for them that would rate them as a field goal favorite or more against 130 FBS teams?
Former Texas Longhorns star wide receiver Xavier Worthy almost got drafted by a much worse NFL team
Xavier Worthy was highly coveted late first round target
First and foremost, the team returns starting quarterback who has grown into one of the most elite passers in all of college football. Regardless of what the ignorant masses or even skeptical fans might think Ewers posted solid marks across the board in the stats that matter most in 2023. He logged the 6th best QB Efficiency Composite score (16-pronged meaningful metric model) last season among all returning 2024 passers, scheme adjusted pass efficiency over the 90th percentile, and well over nine adjusted yards per pass attempt.
Second, Steve Sarkisian and his recruiting staff have built a monster of a football roster. They've brought in three straight top five recruiting classes and boast the sixth best transfer class this offseason (according to 247 Sports). So despite losing Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Byron Murphy, and T'Vondre Sweat to the NFL Draft, they still return a stacked roster.
Even if Quinn Ewers goes down with injury at any point, they have five star hype phenom Arch Manning behind him. Five star linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. was a Freshman All-American last year. Defensive tackle Alfred Collins brought pressure on 11% of his snaps (an elite mark among tackles). Transfer defensive end Trey Moore tallied 13 sacks in 2023. Isaiah Bond and Matthew Golden should immediately fill the Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell roles. The Texas Longhorns are stacked across their entire roster.
With a roster as good as they've built there's no reason the Longhorns can't be "back" in the mix to win the College Football Playoff once again. The road will be tougher given that there are 12 teams in the playoff this season, but Vegas odds maker expectations put them right on the fringe to make the championship game in 2024.
Be looking for more Texas Longhorns and College Football coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) on X (Twitter) for all the latest football news!
And if you want to watch some Quinn Ewers highlights to get even more excited about the 2024 College Football season you can check out the video below!
