Texas still has a shot at the College Football Playoff, but it requires a major upset on Friday
Texas sits at No. 16, but the College Football Playoff door isn’t shut yet. A statement win over Texas A&M and nationwide chaos could keep the Longhorns alive.
Following their 52-37 victory over Arkansas, Texas sits at No. 16 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings—just outside the 12-team cutoff. The path to the playoff has narrowed considerably, but it hasn’t disappeared entirely. What remains is a challenging route that will require near-perfection and some help along the way.
A convincing victory over Texas A&M is essential
Friday night isn’t just another game. Texas faces undefeated No. 3 Texas A&M in Austin — a rivalry renewed, with blood in the water. Winning won’t be enough. If Texas wants to keep its playoff hopes alive, it needs to dominate the game. They’ll need to blow past A&M by multiple scores, show offensive firepower and defensive grit, maybe even throw in a few style points to catch the committee’s attention. Recent rankings showed that narrow victories don’t cut it anymore. “Enough to win” isn’t going to move the needle.
Head coach Steve Sarkisian gets it. When reporters asked about playoff implications, he didn’t flinch — but he refused to entertain the speculation. “We’re playing a rivalry game. . . that’s where our focus is,” he said. “If you start putting energy into things out of our control, you miss what’s right in front of you.”
A victory over Texas A&M alone won’t be enough. Texas needs help from around the country. The ideal scenario requires multiple pieces falling into place.
First, the power conferences need disruption. Upsets in the SEC, Big Ten, or ACC would create the openings Texas needs. When higher-ranked teams lose, it pushes the Longhorns closer to the playoff bubble.
Second, teams currently ahead of Texas in the rankings need to stumble. Even one or two key losses among top contenders could shift the committee’s calculations significantly.
Finally, résumé comparisons need to work in Texas’s favor. If opponents on their schedule lose, it weakens other teams’ strength of victory arguments. Bowl-eligible programs faltering could further shake up the pecking order. In the right circumstances, even another one-loss or two-loss team breaking through could create the chaos Texas needs to slip into consideration.
Wins over ranked teams matter more than ever. The committee is still heavily weighing quality victories. Texas already has wins over some solid opponents. A win over A&M would be a third Top-10 win for the season — that’s the kind of résumé that can’t be ignored.
It’s a long shot, but every CFP Cinderella needs one thing above all else: belief.
Texas demonstrated resilience against Arkansas. While the defense struggled, allowing 512 yards, the offense came alive. Quarterback Arch Manning delivered his best performance in a Texas uniform, connecting on explosive plays and deep throws that impressed throughout the game.
The timing couldn’t be better. Texas A&M enters Friday undefeated with SEC title game implications on the line, making this their most important regular season test. For Texas, facing a highly-ranked opponent creates the exact opportunity they need to reshape their postseason narrative.
The expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format works in Texas’s favor. The selection committee has demonstrated they value quality wins and competitive strength when filling at-large positions. Texas checks several important boxes: power conference membership, multiple victories over ranked opponents, and strong underlying metrics. If other results break favorably, the Longhorns have a legitimate path to selection based on their overall body of work.
The bottom line
The odds are steep. There’s no sugarcoating that reality. But Texas’s season isn’t finished until they suffer a season-ending loss.
Friday night offers more than just an opportunity to end A&M’s undefeated season. It’s a chance to determine how this year will be remembered — as a disappointing collapse or as one of the most improbable turnarounds in recent memory.
Texas needs a convincing victory. They need favorable results from other games around the country. If both happen, the Longhorns could find themselves back in the playoff conversation when it matters most.
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