Can Texas State rebound from a lackluster Week one in the I-35 rivalry against UTSA?
The battle on I-35 is an underrated rivalry in college football. Last year's battle in the Alamodome between UTSA and Texas State was a close one at 20-13. Even though UTSA has won all five matchups in the rivalry, but four of the five games have been within a score. If Texas State is going […]
The battle on I-35 is an underrated rivalry in college football. Last year's battle in the Alamodome between UTSA and Texas State was a close one at 20-13. Even though UTSA has won all five matchups in the rivalry, but four of the five games have been within a score.
If Texas State is going to get a win in the rivalry, this could be the year.
Week 0 and 1: 3-3
2024 record: 3-3 (100%)
Career record: 166-157-5 (51.4%)
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted
UTSA +1 (-112) vs. Texas State -1 (-108)
The Bobcats had themselves a tough opening week. In hosting Lamar, they were a 31-point favorite but couldn't stay consistent on offense, getting a hard-fought 34-27 win. Jordan McCloud got the start and played well but we did see R.J. Martinez get some run in the first half. That was a little concerning since McCloud felt like a slam dunk to improve this offense from a year ago.
The numbers didn't look great from an analytics standpoint. Only a 53rd percentile EPA/play and 60th percentile success rate paired with inconsistency across the board raised some questions, especially on the offensive line. The good news for the Bobcats is the defense created a lot of havoc, doing so on 14% of their plays, including one of every five passing plays. That could create issues for the Roadrunners.
Quarterback Owen McCown is the guy for the Roadrunners and yes, he's the son of Minnesota Vikings quarterbacks coach Josh McCown. Against Kennesaw State, McCown played well throwing for 306 yards and three touchdowns. The run game wasn't very effective, averaging just 3.96 YPC.
Where this game is going to be won and lost is by eliminating havoc. Both teams created double-digit havoc plays in week one but Texas State was much better at preventing them against a similar level of competition (4 vs. 8). That element, plus home-field advantage, will get Texas State the win, even if just by a field goal.
Bet: Texas State -1 (-108)
